Monday, May 20, 2019

Dead-ish: Too good to pass up: New LEAF $15,000...or so...

Edit: It's dead Jim. ...sort of...
[Edit Fall 2020]: End of year deals are back, at least in Seattle or Portland.
Fed credit looks viable throughout most of 2021 for Leafs. Leafs no longer get the EZCharge card. Some areas are offering $250 credit with EVGo.  Rebates are dead for Tesla and GM.
[Edit Fall 2019]:
The Oregon state credit (and some in WA, CA) are still in force, and the Federal tax credit is still happening (probably throughout 2021 for Nissans) but the additional incentives for (most) power company customers in Oregon all went dead July 1st. All is not lost however, the Aug-Sept time-frame is when the dealers get additional incentives from Nissan to move 2019 inventory. Historically that has meant an additional $1.5-2K off, assuming you can find someplace with considerable stock levels. Oregon seems pretty tapped out in that regard, but there are still a fair number of units in the greater Seattle area, and since Oregon residents don't pay WA sales tax, the only real additional 'cost' is the bother of going up there and getting it. We highly recommend having all the negotiations completed over email before heading up there. The process can be fairly painless, and if you can get the NoChargeToCharge/EZ-Charge benefit working before you leave the dealer, the 'fuel' cost of getting of home should be minimal.
One other thing to consider: The Aug-Sept time frame has had the best deals for leases we've seen. As a result, folks that don't qualify for most or all of the Federal Tax Credit (generally incomes below $70,000) see our post on that topic: Link
Even right now (July'19) the dealer up in Bellevue has 51 LEAFs and an extra $1000 off for previous Nissan owners and takes an extra $10,100 off for lease purchases. Remaining financial engineering is left to the reader. ...remembering that there's still the $2500 Oregon credit...


Now defunct post remains for historical perspective:    ;-)
This deal has been out there for a month now and we only caught on last week. Granted the deal goes through the end of June, but for some of you that's hardly enough time to get your ducks (or beavers) in a row.


The basic thing is: PG&E, Portland General Electric, Pacific Power and EWEB customers get an additional $3500 off of a new Nissan LEAF (40KWh 156 mi. range) or $2500 off a new LEAF Plus (60KWh 225 mi. range) that they purchase outright before July 1st. Not applicable to leases, so if you don't make enough to qualify for the federal tax incentive, you're out of luck (in many ways... ;-)
YES! ALL THESE INCENTIVES 'STACK'




Lets do the math; for Oregon at least, there are somewhat similar deals going on in other states, WA and CA in particular.
New LEAF 'S' (base model, no leather or ProPilot, 150 mile range) $28,000 +Tax&Lic&Fees.
$28K - Fed $7.5K - Oregon $2.5K - PowerCo. $3.5K = $14.5K +Tax&Lic&Fees.
           [MAKE ABSOLUTELY SURE that you're getting one that has the Fast Charging option, even if you don't think you're going to need it.]
New LEAF S-Plus (base model, no leather or ProPilot, 225 mile range) $36,500 +Tax&Lic&Fees.
$36.5K - Fed $7.5K - Oregon $2.5K - PowerCo. $2.5K = $24K +Tax&Lic&Fees.

First, find the lowest advertised price in Oregon or Washington for the general type of car you want.
We have historically started with pricing from the Seattle Area dealers (Bellevue, Younker or Campbell Nissan) and then take that link and use it to beat the dealer you're actually interested in buying from over the head. This has historically worked well with Dick Hanna Nissan and somewhat with Carr Nissan, both are PDX area dealers. It's a good idea to approach their internet sales department from the Costco dealer discount page (if you're a member) since that adds to their incentive-to-discount. Who knows, this could work with local dealers too. We always check... and it hasn't worked yet.
In the examples above we just did 10 min. worth of web searching. The low on a Leaf S was 27.9K from Bellevue Nissan and the low on a Leaf S-Plus was at Carr Nissan (Beaverton) and of course the 'loss leader' specials get sold out quick, but staying on top of it and retaining copies of the 'specials' actually works. We've been through this before ... and before.
"All this is just too much bother!"
Fair point, but that just means you probably aren't ideally equipped to step far enough outside your current 'comfort zone,' to where an EV is necessarily a good idea for you. It is admittedly quite a bit to deal with, most of it's calmly after the sale though.


Links:
Overview
Pacific Power
Portland General
EWEB

Downsides:
- Purchase deals only, no Leases. We have previously been fond of leases.
- The Federal tax rebate is easy to do, but you do need to have enough federal tax liability outstanding after all other deductions. Implying an income above $70K.
- The Oregon state rebate has a couple hoops to jump through but it doesn't have an income test. Can take over 9 months to get the money though.
- The rebates from the various power companies are supposed to be applied 'up front' ir at least that's what the paperwork implies. No income test. The obvious big issue is getting the transaction done in time (end of June.)
- If you want the lane-keeping auto-cruise-control (ProPilot Assist) and the fancy wheels and leather power seats then you're out an additional $7K
- In the worst-case real world, Cold blowing rainy day with lights heater and defroster on while doing 70+ mph on the freeway the range on the 'S' is below 120 miles and the S-Plus 160 miles. That's just physics, folks.

FYI we've had our 'New/Upgrade' model 'S' 40-KWh 2018 LEAF (see previous posts) for 10K miles now and it's been no trouble at all. Goes over 100 miles a day with no additional charging, couple days a week. Comfortable, quiet, corners and brakes well. Plenty of 'pep.'  Fits four real humans, plus a bunch of boxes and stuff in the back.




Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The Once and Future Tesla

Or, what to get now...?

I get questions, one of the most common being along the lines of "Yes, but which electric vehicle do you think I should get now?"  or the more usual:  "I was thinking about getting an electric to do -blank,- what do you think?" ...and as usual the answer, as always is 'It Depends.'  Keeping fully in mind that this advice is worth every cent you paid for it.

There's all kinds of stuff "Coming real Soon!" from just about everybody. The only one I suspect is really serious is Volkswagen. They should have viable stuff, sorted out and ready to purchase in 2021. If you can wait that long they might be good. Just don't expect them to be much cheaper than the $35K average of the stuff below. As for the eGolf? Don't.

Modified Slide from a Nissan L+ presentation

If you've got the bucks, the answer really is nearly always Tesla.
SUV kinda thing? Tesla Model X, about $100K.
Large-ish sedan? Tesla Model S, around $80K.
Smaller sportier sedan? Tesla Model 3, the bottom end of which has penciled out around $35-37K for quite awhile now when you include Federal incentives (assuming you qualify) and color choice and destination charges. Yes I know they say $35K up front how, but the 'mid-range' model back last year was around $36-38K after incentives and the 'new' Standard+ Model 3 is still about the same amount. [If you are going to argue about dinky 2-3% ($1K) differences, well, go somewhere else.]
If you think you're going to sign up for a base model (around $37K out the door) and get it in time to qualify for the 'half-incentive' that's still available for a couple more months, well, good luck.
The 'small SUV' cross-over version of the Model 3 [Model 'Y'] has been announced for sometime in 2020, and doesn't look worth the $5-7K higher price to me, but some people really go for things like  that.

Note: We actually had the money set aside for a Tesla Model 3, the base $35K one. after incentives here that would have worked out to a little over $26K all in. From our perspective here, just --barely-- worth it.
Delaying the introduction date of the lower price model until after the Federal incentive expired was cruel and unusual. Exactly the type of calculating corporate slime-ball-ism that Tesla claims not to 'be about.'  So now ...      I'm not buying one.

Tesla Model S's seem to be aging well so a 2015 well under $50K with high miles on it wouldn't bother me, earlier ones would become increasingly questionable. 2014 maybe... OTOH I'm not someone who is spending $50K on a car regardless. YMMV.
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If, just by chance, you happen to live where they're available the Hyundai Kona looks like a fine deal. About $38K out the door and the Fed$$ are still available. Pretty nice form factor too, if you're into the mid-size SUV thing. Sounds like few of the dealers will get the base model, so it's probably an 'order and wait' thing. The previous Hyundai/Kia electric rig was nicely done.
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Ford and GM seem to be decreasing the availability of most of their options, although both have announced big plans for late 2020-early 2023 (we'll see...) with the exception of the Chevy Bolt, more on that later. If you need short range (20-30 miles) combined with gas hybrid capability the Chevy Volt can be a good buy. 2016's can be had around $15K. Nice!
For basically the same price as a Nissan Leaf Plus or a Tesla Mod.3 I just can't see the point of the Chevy Bolt. People who have them seem to like them and crow about  American Made [actually about 28% of the content is US origin, drivetrain, electronics, motor and battery are all from Korea. The body is made here, and the (awful) seats] They handle and accelerate well, but not by comparison with a Mod.3 and the Leaf+ is better at comfort and carrying capacity and has about the same range and price. Ironically the Leaf has much higher U.S. made content than the Bolt, but alas, it says Nissan on the badge...
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If you have to get real work, day to day transportation done now, and you don't happen to have the XL size bank account then we're back to pretty much the same choices that have been out there for awhile now, with the one addition of the 'Plus' version of the Leaf and the Mod.3 Std.. Lets look at how the recommended options stack up. Here we're going to use real world range and Oregon-rebate-included prices, YMMV:

Tesla Mod.3 Std.                      $34K  Range 220 mi. note: Superchrgers are Nice!
Nissan Leaf Plus.                     $27K  Range 200 mi. note: Fast charging less available
Nissan Leaf 40KWh                 $21K  Range 120 mi. Good as the Plus if lower range OK
Chevy Volt (used 2016)            $15K  Range 30 mi. plus gas beyond that
Nissan Leaf 24 KWh used'15   $10K  Range 70-80 mi. Not a bad rig for the price.
Mitsubishi iMiev (used'12-14)  $5-6K  Range 50 mi.  *See notes below

Notes:
Buying used electric cars is not quite the same as buying a standard I.C.E. (gasoline engine) in that you can't take it down to your average shade-tree mechanic to get it checked out. Use CARFAX as usual to check history. There are previous posts on this blog about using Canion and LeafSpy to check the batteries on the Mitsubishi and Nissan respectively, but it will take some research time on your part to determine how to use these correctly. The MyNissanLeaf and MyIMiev forums are a goldmine of useful information. Having it into the dealer could be good too, although I've heard enough stories of the dealers' having little clue about battery testing (some only check the 12V battery, seriously!) that doing your own checking is wise.
Still, if you're willing to put in a couple hours effort (OK, 10-15 hours...) you can get around town in fine electric style for under $10K. 
The Volt's are nice although the maintenance costs can be a bit higher. (I'd look for an extended warranty...)

* We're (collectively) still using our 2012 Mitsubishi iMiev and have four friends that have them. They're all still going strong and some have over 7 years and 50K miles on them. Sure they're an around town runabout, with maybe occasional trips 10-15 miles out of town. For that they work great. They're basically useless for longer trips. Even the ones with fast-charging capability are lame on even slightly longer jaunts. Don't buy them for that. I'd hold out for a 2014 given the 2 years less battery ageing. Great 4 passenger local transportation that's awesome in traffic and when parking...
IF If if you have a Mitsubishi dealership with factory trained iMiev mechanics in a reasonable range of your house. If you can't get it fixed, don't buy it regardless of how good a 'deal' it is. That applies to the Nissan's too.