Just an update or two

The long term inclination here has been to just edit posts and add Updates/Edits as reality shifts going forward. We're finding that only a few people (excepting those dozen or so new readers every year) are actually reading the updates. That's fair. So for the two dozen or so that read only new posts we'll attempt to summarize all that stuff here.    #a number of separate topics.

Aug.'23: Update to  The Crossing Point, showing how all this is tracking predictions. The short answer, really well, especially on a world-wide perspective. U.S. should hit 10% BEV adoption around the end of 2023. That wasn't 'supposed' to happen until 2026 if you listen to U.S. 'authorities.'

June'23: Connecting on Connectors chronicles the mass move to support the Tesla fast charging connector 'NACS' by most of the EV competitors. Turns out having the lowest cost, most reliable and (by far) the highest number of charging stations counts for something.

Apr.'23: For those of you looking for an inexpensive 'local transportation' EV, there's still the option of getting a 2023 Nissan Leaf S for under $30K. We found seven remaining in WA.
"What? That's not a good deal! A ten year old design (granted it's been updated a lot) with only 150 miles of range and an outdated charging port? " 
Uh, what part of "Local Transportation" did you not understand?
Well hold on, it qualifies for (at least right now) the full Federal Tax Credit, -and- various state rebates. For example if you're low enough income in Oregon (under 400% of the federal poverty line) you might get another $7500 off*, for a total of $15,000 off. Like a new car for $15K.
California residents can get $7K off or even more in some circumstances (having enough income to fully qualify for the federal credit -and- the CA Low Income Voucher, [300% of poverty line] is difficult to pull off but could result in car for $10K or so.) so local tax/income situations are a major variable.  Worth looking into though...
                   *You have to purchase/apply before the end of April. So this is dead.

Jan'23-Probably the most important post here ever:  As Go the Batteries, So Goes the Nation. 
There's also a bit there about the application of Wright's Law to the cumulative price decline. Key parts:  

"Note six months later: LFP cells, in quantities of 50,000 are already down around $70/kWh. That makes some of the arguments below even more compelling. Granted that is FOB in China. Tesla and others are near to making the same come true in the US factories. That sounds like a nifty 22% drop. Cool, huh! But don't forget the U.S. allows a $35 per KWh in tax credits to the manufacturers, so that drop cuts the after tax cost of LFP cells IN HALF. This is going to get really interesting ... especially when they get the cost down around $35 in 2025 or 2026. What happens when the most expensive part of your car or home energy storage system has a net cost of Zero Dollars? Boggles the mind.

Way down at the bottom of that post you'll find an addendum about how the cost of LFP cells are declining over time. Hint: It's over 15% per year.. Translation: That's around $60/KWh by mid-late 2024."

This also impacts The Crossing Point, which also has updates unrelated to the above. Including new graphs of how the EV transition might look. Note that there's not much about this 'zero cost' thing included there because we have little idea how that will play out. The macroeconomic effects of a single microeconomic cost variation. Should be an interesting ride.

Jan'23-Last quarter profit numbers for all the big EV players. These are numbers derived from the reports they filed based on world-wide numbers, not just U.S. specific, and includes the top ten manufacturers that have Pure EV's in their lineup. The EV parts of their business are not separated out here so this chart has a lot of gas cars (and profits) in it.

None of these (except Tesla) would be showing positive numbers if profits from EV's ONLY were shown. 

It's interesting to compare the 'Pure EV' players Tesla, Xpeng and Nio. Quite the different story. Several of whom have pointed out that if they could just sell more cars (at a loss) they'd improve their margins (but still loose money one each one sold?)

All of Ford + GM added together have less net profit than Tesla (who is less than a quarter their combined size).

Here is another view of that dynamic now that the 2022 figures are all in. Note that this one is about gross sales volume in the USA. We expect these trends to continue, especially for those who do a bad job of the EV transition, like Honda, Mazda and Toyota

As per usual, click on an image to blow up full size.

Feb'23-Electrify America, an EV Charging vendor mentioned in 2500 miles for Free? has raised their rates by a bunch (15%?) right in the middle of reports that their charge connectors sometimes short out and weld themselves to the vehicle they're attached to. Call the tow truck, or maybe the fire brigade. Oh, and they, it turns out, have used Microsoft Windows, a famously secure, reliable, lightweight operating system to run their charge stations. Oops! Hacking chargers is a thing? Apparently so. Also in what is sure to be unrelated news much of the top management of the company is being rotated out. Turns out they need the money from the increase to pay for thousands more (functional?) charging stations ... and get one-tenth as many as Tesla in operation.

Speaking of Tesla chargers ('Supercharger') in the countries where Tesla is allowing other brands of car to use their charging stations they seem to be beating the snot out of their competition. Lower prices, more reliable, faster, hmmm, can't see why. The Tesla app, which you need to start the charge, instead of advertising you potato chips while you charge your VW, is selling you Teslas. Wonder if that will work? The various other players seem very intent on this not happening in North America. Good luck with that.
There is also an Apr'23 edit of 'Motive, Means and Opportunity' about U.S.Fast Charger instillation rates.

Dec'22-And in the saddest news of this update, the 'Leasing Loophole' appears closed**. The post about this, how people who do not qualify for the FedTaxCredit of $7500 can use the Leassor as a stand-in and gain around $7K when 'buying' the car, was BY FAR the most popular post on this site ever.
This still 'works' if you're actually interested in Leasing. However the whole point of the post was that you would buy out the lease almost immediately, and so get the benefit of the tax credit despite having insufficient taxable income to qualify. What basically happened is the high resale values on used cars during the pandemic plus the high demand for used EVs generally -plus- the now available $4K credit for used EVs has convinced the leasing agencies (Tesla, NMAC, GMAC - etc) to rescind the option to buy out the lease. They make more money on the lease-take-back than they would otherwise. Also, somehow they're convinced that this maintains a higher used car price for their wares. In Tesla's case, this appears to be true. Not so obvious for the others. Bummer though, the little guy gets screwed again.

** Note that Hyundai/KIA are bucking that trend as of late'23, some investigation there might pay off.