The Crossing Point: Ain't happening how they say.

Update for 1H '23 results just to show roughly where things are at compared to the various targets shown below. Here we have actual battery EV (BEV) sales as a year - to year comparison

Actual year2year registration data. Puts the crossover at ~Feb.2025 +/- 2 mo.

You'll see this fits the 50% curve below much closer than the 30% curve. This will all make sense when you read the rest of the post, trust us! Annnnd, back to the post:

Those of you who pay attention to the whole EV, Energy, Climate Change 'thing'  (and why else would you be reading this, surely it's not for the quality and brevity of the prose style) are already aware that major politicians expect 50% EV adoption as a 'stretch goal' by 2030. The big auto makers have pretty much gone along whether they want to or not, pushed along doubtless by their largest single market, California, declaring No New ICE (Internal Combustion Engine - 'gas') Cars by 2035.

Addendum early 2023:
Shown here is the 'S Curve' of how technology products advance in a market from a general perspective and then specific numbers released through the end of 2022. As you can see the world wide adoption of EVs is not exactly on the 'tech products' curve, but it's really close. Market share of 'traditional' vehicles is declining apace. Despite their manufacturers' claims of how it's all about supply/parts constraints. If that was really true then the EVs would have been impacted in a similar (or even more extreme) manner.

Idealized market 'takeover' curve

Drivers of the S curve

Actual world wide results through end of 2022. Note 1/3rd of the total by end of 2023
Note also that this most closely follows the 50% graph below.

On with the story: It was great to see a new V-Blog post on youtube by Lars, our favorite EV nut. Here are a couple key graphs from that presentation with a short (comparatively speaking) note on what this is about.

Note: All these numbers are from a world-wide perspective. Not just U.S. centric.

Many of you are aware that the EV market has been growing (remember: World Wide) by approximately 100% per year since late 2019. Granted this includes projections for the remainder of 2022.
     "Really? I hadn't heard that, are you sure?"
You're probably paying attention to U.S.-centric major news outlets that are drinking the 'Big Three' automaker's (and Politicians') kool-aid, er, perspective. They're projecting 50% by 2030.
Now obviously that 100% year-over-year growth rate can't continue indefinitely but there's strong evidence that we're just getting into the sharp upward part of the 'S' Curve that technology/innovation based products tend to observe.

Anyway, Lars projected current numbers and graphed what it would look like to hit that 50%-by-2030 goal. The surprise for most of you is that it only requires a 15% Y-o-Y growth rate. Not 100%/year. Not 50% or even 30%.

Click on it if you want a bigger version of the graph.

Yep, there's NO WAY that this slower growth is going to happen. Even if materials constraints, which we covered throughly in the last blog post, are a much bigger deal than anyone expects*, it will still shoot up faster than this. Note how the curve for EVs has to flatten off after 2022, way unlike how any committed EV manufacturer is projecting as worst-case.

Did some crude edits here to make it more 'S curve'-ish

Even if everyone in the EV industry is seriously delusional and the current growth rate of nearly 100%/year is equally delusional, a growth rate of 30% per year is the minimum we can even imagine happening. Heck the total shown here for 2022 is already low compared to real numbers. Push that blue line up by at least 1-2 million.
So that pushes the cross-over 50/50 point down into 2026. Note how that blue line still has to flatten out a whole bunch right at 2022 to make this graph work. Anybody think that's what's happening? Nope, didn't think so.

Say the recent near 100% growth rate is all B.S. Even extrapolating current, relatively conservative projections results in a 50%/year rate for the next couple years. Here's what that looks like, and what we regard as the most likely scenario. That puts the EV at half the world wide market no later than 2025. 
We're not saying here that the U.S. market will hit 50% by then. Large sections of the U.S. will be keeping their cranium's fully imbedded in their rectum for as long as possible. That will slow adoption. The established automakers and unions have a vested interest in slowing this down to match their ability to change without going bankrupt (which still seems the most likely scenario) and don't underestimate their political clout. Toyota and Honda have been dragging their feet for years now and that will add to the resistance.  As a result the 30% graph is more probable here in the USA. Note that's only 1.5 years different on the crossing point.

Sure, that yellow line at the top could take off, somehow global car demand shoots up a bunch. But even if that demand increase (which seems improbable) is all met by increased ICE production, that only pushes the 50/50 point by a couple months.
Do note the blue line includes plug-in hybrids. That was unavoidable due to how the data/stats are collected. They represent about 10-15% of that 'blue' total. The absolute number of those should continue at about the same raw number, but that will represent a declining percentage of the whole. It should, as 'pure' battery EVs become more viable over time.

What does this mean for us? We're rapidly divesting from any security or index fund that has a noticeable position in the 'Big Three' automakers or their suppliers that are tied to the gas-engine parts of things. Vote with your dollars!
We're probably not going to buy another electric car until the cheaper, longer lasting (but slightly lower range) LFP batteries (no Nickel or Cobalt!) become more readily available. See previous post about batteries.

* All prognostications are null and void in case of world war.