Turning a new Leaf

This was extracted from another post, Separated so they're not  "Toooo darn long."

So once the sale of the 'old' car was in the bag (or handshake as the case may be) it was time to go out and get the new rig.  As you might imagine, if you have been reading this blog for any extended period, there was quite a bit of research time and talking with dealers throughout Oregon and Washington. After talking it over with the most local-ish dealer, it quickly became obvious that volume sales of the Leaf were not exactly their 'thing.'  It's not that they weren't interested, just not interested enough to actually have much stock and the stock they have is heavily weighed toward the higher profit margin units. They did have a really nice guy at the Drive Electric event. Bonus points!

Once we went through a bait and switch session with one dealer who will remain nameless the final competitors were Bellevue Nissan in the Seattle area and Dick Hannah in Gladstone (Portland OR). I would highly recommend either dealer to any potential buyer. Kyle at Bellevue was nice, informative and very responsive to questions. That dealership MUST be one of the top ones in the country for Leaf sales and it was impressive watching the stock on hand fluctuate over the last couple months. At one point I think they had almost 140 Leafs in stock. Highly recommended.
Jason Channer (the Sales Mgr) and Solomon Lopez at Dick Hannah were also great to work with and after recovering from one miscommunication early in the process things went smoothly. Highly recommended.
[Edit, a week later]: There was an error in the lease contract we signed. Maybe we should have caught this (in the dozen documents we signed) and maybe the finance guy at the dealer should have caught it, but regardless, Jason went the extra mile (or 200 miles...) and sent someone down from Portland to Eugene with a copy of the correct paperwork for us to sign. I've never heard of customer service like that. Kudos! Did we mention these folks are Highly Recommended?
[Edit 2  almost a month later]: Somehow the revised paperwork got snarled up between the dealer and NMAC (the Lease agency) and as a result we never saw the first monthly billing. Not wishing to be 'behind' right from the start we contacted the dealer, they found the problem and then stated that they would make our first months lease payment for us. Cool!!  I don't know what happened, but they found the problem, they owned the problem, and totally went out of their way to make it right. Still highly recommended.
Anyways...
The two dealerships, selling the same product and using the same (NMAC) Leasing system, ended up within a couple dollars of each other on pricing. What's interesting is how far off from that the 'other' dealers we talked to were. Generally at least $1000 or more ($2000!) higher when totaled out over the course of the lease.
Both Dealers had stock of what we wanted: 2018 Leaf 40KWh model S + Fast Charging Package in Deep Blue. ~$5000 down and ~$200/month for 36 months.  The final 'who got the business' ended up having much more to do with chance and nothing to do with who had the best deal or was the nicest.

Folks have had the usual "Why are you leasing again?" questions, and it comes down to the same reasoning as last time. See the earlier post on that.  Leasing isn't the cheapest option, but it does have several advantages: Someone else takes the hit if the battery degrades more rapidly than expected. You don't have to qualify for the full Federal Tax Credit to get a good deal and you still have the option of buying it at any point in the process. Yes it does cost an additional ~$500 'Lease Origination Fee' at the beginning, but I think it's worth it. The effective interest rate is not 3% but rather 0.03% so from a time-value-of-money perspective it's not bad either. Do the math: $5000 + (36 x $200) + $9800 residual is around $22K. There are worse deals...
Now add in the $2500 Oregon EV Rebate (assuming that ever happens) and some other considerations we're now going into here and both cars taken together look (financially) like a $Zero down $200/mo four year 60,000 mile lease with a $9.8K residual.  Will it be worth the $9.8K at the end? Ask me in three years...

One good reason to lease is highlighted by http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com/ and his Recent 6 month review of the 2018 Leaf.  If the battery stats continue to degrade at his current rate he'll lose about a third of his battery capacity in the first 100,000 miles. If it's still looking bad near the end of the lease, I'll give it back. If OTOH the market value is high enough I'll buy it out and sell it ... which is what we did with the 2017:   Totaling all up-front costs, registration, insurance, electricity and the buy-out price results in a number less than we sold it for. ie: 2017=Free Driving for almost two Years!

The other reason for getting the 2018 now is that Nissan should hit their 200,000 units cap for the federal tax credit in 2020 or 2021. If we waited to the end of the 2017 Leaf lease there might be no credits left.
Q: "But you're leasing, what do you care?"
A: The credit goes to the leasing firm and is the major portion of the ~$10K discount that Nissan applies before calculating the base price from which the lease dollar amounts are derived.
The difference should be about $120/month. Not small change...
Edit Oct.18:  According to http://evadoption.com/ev-sales/federal-ev-tax-credit-phase-out-tracker-by-automaker/ the Leaf won't come off of the Federal$$Credit until 2020 or 2021 sometime. It appears our reasoning based on the credit phase-out in 2019 (at the bottom of the post) was incorrect. It's still possible all the credits will get killed in 2019 based on current maneuvering in the Senate.

We'll do another post later on the comparison between the two cars.

Edit 2021, there's also a post on the link above about an even later Leaf.

Carshow and Gone

As per the previous post the 2017 30KWh Leaf S was for sale and has moved on to greener pastures. It didn't fetch the asking price but it was closer than expected. Here it is in it's last Hurrah at the Drive Electric celebrations last week. Closest to the entrance and with a small but subtle for sale sign in the window.

There was lots of interesting stuff to see but after three hours talking to folks standing in a hot parking lot I was DONE. There were about 40 cars there and a pretty good turnout.



The Archimoto ridealong and talking to the UBCO electric trailbike guys was probably the most interesting parts of the show.
One wheel drive for the three-wheeler and all wheel drive for the bike. Go figure...

Oddly enough the sale of the Leaf did not evolve directly from the show but rather from a discussion that occurred while I was getting it ready. How life works: Random shit happens...

And then getting the new one...

Leafs turn in the fall

Actually not so much 'turn' as 'sell.'
Yes we're selling our less than two year old Leaf.        Edit: SOLD!

"What? What's wrong with it?"

Actually nothing, it's in nearly perfect condition, bit over 20K miles and since we got a pretty good deal on it (see previous posts)  the asking price will be aggressively fair.

"But,  so,  Why?"
Well you may have noticed a newer nicer (if rather more expensive) electric vehicle starting to show up in the area.
I think an order might be in order. Besides, "We want's it, my Precious!"
...but... we can't afford to have two EV's (OK scratch that, there's already two, we can't afford three) knocking around the house so one of them has to go. Payout on the lease is reasonable, (remember that the monthly billing was really, artificially, low) but it takes a couple weeks to process, already in process. Or the process of processing,   or whatever.

It has everything that's important, at least from my perspective:
It has the fast charging option, and experienced Leaf owners from 2015 -OR- 2018 will tell you that no Leaf before or since charges as well (or as quickly) as the 2017 30 KWh Leaf.
The backup camera, the hands-free bluetooth, the big playlist you can load on the, actually pretty darn good, audio system. It doesn't have the larger 'Nav System' screen, but given how much better (seriously, lame.) your phone works for that you won't miss it. It is missing the aluminum wheels and the leather 'trimmed' interior but it's hard to say if that's worth several thousand dollars.
Not a bad package at all.
If you just gotta have the additional 40 mi. range of the 2018 model, then march right into the dealer. But, make sure to haul an additional $13K in with you.

Up until a couple weeks ago I would have hesitated to sell it to anyone I know as some reports of accelerated battery degradation had started to pop up.  Oops, not good, glad we're leasing.
Then there was an announcement that Nissan had identified an error in the battery management system that was reporting an incorrect value to the main computer in the car. Making it look like the range had decreased, even though the underlying battery cells tested fine.
They issued a recall and all the 2017's will be getting an update to fix the problem, even though some (like ours) aren't showing any symptoms. Whew! So we're getting scheduled for that.
Some of the big fleet operators, who had been involved in identifying and publicizing the problem have now had some time to do testing and report that the fix is real and works correctly.
That information isn't really sunk into the market yet and it's 'helped' depress values somewhat.

So, on to the pricing issue:
'Book Values' are all over the map, as is apparently usual for a new (30 KWh) type of an existing model in it's first two years. I saw expected prices from just below $16K to nearly $20K. Given it's under two years old, doesn't have any problems, is in excellent shape, and sold for nominally about $32K a year ago, I'm going to pin the tail on the price graph right at $17.8K.  Yes that's 45% down in less than two years.  Welcome to my world....
Actually I just saw a report showing the average Leaf loses 72% of it's value after 5 years. The average for all cars was 56%. That sounds horrendous except they were comparing each car to it's original sticker price. If you compare instead to the post-credit(s) and Nissan/dealer markdowns price, the Leaf looks only a tiny bit (4%?) worse than average.

Batteries. Yes, again

Somehow every battery post I've done is either too complicated and most people's eyes glaze over -or- it leads to immediate "Yes, but what about..." questions. Here's an attempt to simplify all that. I'm going to assume you already know not to completely discharge your batteries on a regular basis.
If on the other hand, you want massive amounts of detail, especially about LEAFs then head over to one of my favorite blogs: DaveInOlyWA.

So, here's the simple version:
Don't leave your battery pack sitting around at full charge.
Especially if it's hot.
Seriously, that's just about all there is to it.
Here's the picture:

I picked the image off the web. I think it's from a Dalhousie University study, but don't quote me. 

What does this mean?  It means you'll get TWO to THREE TIMES the life out of your batteries if you only charge them to 80% most of the time. Having an occasional charge up to 100% won't cause a problem, especially if you don't let it sit around in the sun, in fact going to 100% every 4-6 weeks can be a good thing as it allows the batteries to balance, even-out, with one-another.
Keep in mind that most of the damage comes from sitting hot. Hitting 100% and then immediately driving off isn't nearly as damaging. So if you do need 100% on a regular basis try to schedule the charge timing so it reaches 100% an hour or so before you need to take off. If that happens to be in the cool of the morning, so much the better.

One thing that doesn't show in the picture is that it isn't quite as bad as it seems since most electric car manufacturers only allow the batteries to charge to 95-97% of full capacity anyway since they're already wise to the fact that 100%=Warranty Claims.

---------  Yep, that's it. That's really all there is. Nitpickity details below --------

If you have a Leaf from before 2014 or a Chevy Bolt you have a clever feature hidden in the on-screen menus that allows you to set the maximum charge to 80% (Leaf) or 89% (Bolt). Yay!
But only about 5% of the people are using that. Boo! It gets no press.
"How come only the pre-2014 Leafs?"
Nissan put in that feature to help preserve the battery life. Smart, huh?
Then other manufacturers complained to the EPA that the reduced charge should be taken into account when calculating the EPA Range Estimates. Ya'know, unfair to all the cars the other manufacturers weren't even making yet, but they have good lobbyists. Boo!
So Nissan removed the feature. "Screw the public, we want good EPA numbers!" Double Boo!
"Wait, so how does Chevy still have that feature?"
Basically they're smarter than Nissan. They called it a "Hilltop Reserve," basically a bit of charge space so regen would still work after you charged your car up in the hills where your house is. It's the same feature, just different marketing (safety, ya'know), and did I mention the better lobbyists?
And to be fair a 'feature' that takes 11% off the top of a 200 mile range (Bolt) is a lot easier to stomach than one which takes 20% off the top of a 100 mile range (Leaf).
Also to be fair, it's VERY possible to set the timer on your Leaf (or sometimes on the charger itself) to produce the same result, it's just a bit more bother.
Of course, after tax and rebates a Leaf has recently been (see earlier posts) just over half the cost of a Bolt, so you have to take that into consideration. Seriously, 2017 Leafs have bottomed out below $20K. Bolts were around $35K. Do the math.

You may notice there's no mention of Tesla. Firstly, they have superior battery chemistry -and- really good thermal management (ie: they keep the batteries cool) on which the Bolt also does a pretty good job, and Nissan does a really crappy job. My take: Buy a Tesla (if you're a member of the economic top 5%) or maybe a Bolt. If you're going to get a Leaf (jury's still out on the 2018's) get it as a Lease, not a 'Buy' so that the lease company takes the hit as the batteries go south in a hot climate.

Update'd LEAF

The 9 month report: 10K Miles.
First the bad news. Everything that's gone wrong or failed to operate as expected:
1. There's a slow leak in the left front tire (two weeks for 10 PSI) that we haven't been able to locate.
2. There is no '2.'  That's it for problems. Seriously.
No hickups. Never stranded us. Never ran (completely) out of charge.
[See Caveat below]

As expected the car goes round-trip to Corvallis twice a week and if the weather is nice and we're not in too big a hurry to make it up there then it does that on a single (home) charge. If it's nasty rainy and cold or we buzz up the freeway at 75 then we have to stop at the charger on the way back.

Fortunately there are three fast chargers on the route. You can easily check on the LEAF EZ-Charge app (on either the Google or Apple app stores) to see if the chargers are available and review the last few user comments to see if there's been any problems. We always try to have enough charge remaining to make it to the next charger in case of failure or a long wait. We've used the AV Network CHaDeMo fast charger at the Tangent OR freeway exit the most, Roughly 60-70 times so far. It takes around 15 min. for the amount we need.
There were two occasions where we had a short wait.
There were two occasions where we went on to the next charger in Halsey due to the wait.
There was one occasion where the charger was mis-behaving (showed a warning on the app) and we went on to the next charger. Granted it probably would have been just a case of calling the AV support number and having then remotely reset it, but we didn't have time.
That works out to an error rate of somewhere below 2%.
Keep in mind that the access to the charger networks is free for the period of our lease (ie: included in the purchase) and would have cost $180 if paid monthly or ~$500 if paid 'per use.'

Anyway, it's been a darn good ride. Plenty of acceleration for scooting around town or freeway on-ramps. Nice quiet ride. Competent cornering and braking. Comfortable interior.
We wish the heater didn't suck down the battery charge quite as fast (lops off about 15%) and it would be nice if there were about 20% more range as many fewer charging stops would be required.

Caveat: The early results from late 2016 and 2017 Leaf's that have the 30KWh ('larger') battery pack like ours indicate that battery degradation is even more pronounced on these models than on the earlier units with the 24KWh pack. Granted it's early days yet, but this is NOT a good trend. We are VERY pleased to have leased the car. We get the sweet part of the battery life and someone else has to deal with the tail end. As a result I probably wouldn't consider buying one of these used unless the price is VERY attractive and the commute distance is relatively low. We (and everyone else) are waiting to see of the Leaf Gen2 (2018) 40 KWh packs have the same problem.