Thursday, April 9, 2015

Advice: Used? Uh, maybe not.

Note that as of May 1st there were still 5 2016 iMiEV's for below $20K at the northern MN dealer linked below.
Including transportation from there and fees you're looking at about $21.3K or $13,800 after tax considerations. That ain't bad at all, and the dealer has proven very willing to deal with out of state buyers and arranging transportation (which works out to $1200-1300ish if you're not in too big a hurry)
 Edit: EXPIRED:  Some of the US 2014 iMiEV inventory was  sporting $8000 off pricing.
This results in a new 2014 going for $15,995.
Assuming you qualify for the federal tax credit of $7500 that puts the price down to $8500ish.
Granted that's for units in northern Minnesota and it could cost a grand (easily) to get it here and there's issues with sales tax & etc. but wow, $8.5K.
Too bad they're all gone.  They do have a couple 2016's listed at $19,995 which if nothing else makes a good number to beat local dealers over the head with. Due to transportation costs and unit volume these things are a little more expensive in the Pacific NW, so maybe $21K is more likely. That's about $13.5K after tax credit (assuming you qualify for all of it). ...Which isn't all that bad, basically the same I paid for mine 2+ years ago, but it ain't no $8.5K. Oh well.
This really highlights the tradeoffs between iMiEV and LEAF. Is it better to find a used LEAF for $11-13K (see 'Reality Check below and the 'Edit' at the bottom of the post) or try and find a 2016 iMiEV for $13-14K?   That would be a tough call for me, especially against the 2013 LEAF.
Note: Buddy of mine just got a low miles used 2013 LEAF SV off CARlypso.com for $12.5K plus delivery. Deals are out there...


Yes, long time no post. Still humming along. Not much to report.
There will be an update on battery instrumentation (Canion) coming out soon.

I've talked to a couple folks within the last month who were/are interested in getting an iMiEV. "Sure, they're great" is pretty much what I said. Then we do a little searching and... there aren't any more new 2014's left in the state, and very few anywhere. There -might- be 2016's trickling in eventually, but that could be quite a wait.
"So what about a used one?"
"Well, maybe at the right price."
"What would a good price be?"
Hmmm lets do a little digging. A new 2012 bought in mid 2013 with all the dealer incentives and tax credits would have a net cost of around $13.8-$14K, assuming the buyer was paying attention, [and we don't want to be paying for other people's inattention here.] Battery pack replacements (at the dealer, maybe less elsewhere) are running about $14K. Translation: The 'used' value of the car at the end of the 8 year 100K mile warranty should be pretty darn low. If we overlay  a pretty normal looking depreciation curve for general autos on top of these figures I would come up with an eyeball estimate of around $7K-$9K that I would be more or less comfortable paying now. I think the NADA book has them around $6K as a trade in value.
Lets look at the actual used market: Within 400-500 miles there are somewhere over a dozen of these for sale, priced from $11K through $16K with mostly 10-20 thousand miles on them. Huh, that's a bunch more $$ than I'd be happy with. Looking further out (U.S.wide) there's a dozen or so between $7K-8K and another dozen in the $8K-9K ranges, so it looks like the overall market has figured this out. None of them were over 20K miles either.

Reality check:
2012 Nissan Leafs that were about $25K after all the credits are fetching $12K-$13K with 20-30K miles on them. That would actually argue for the $8K number on the iMiEV being a bit high. I would argue that the MUCH larger number of Leaf sales have resulted in a more mature (read: realistic) market. Sounds about right to me.

So would I get a used iMiEV for $10-11K? Maybe if it's a 2014. Certainly not for a 2012.
I might try to find a nice 2012 with 10K mi. on it and offer $6K-7K. -OR-
I'd be even more likely to try and find a Leaf with similar miles for $11-13K.
Traitor!!?    I think not.
Nobody I know will argue that the Leaf isn't a better car for most uses. Better dealer/repair network too. It's just that they were $2X too much. Now that isn't true, I'd consider one. Especially if it hasn't lived in a hot climate and has been treated to a reasonable charge regimen. And hey, if it was me I'd hold out for a 2013 LEAF SV, nationwide there's dozens of them under $14K

[Edit: New info: It was just pointed out to me that one of the main reasons 2012 Nissan LEAF prices have dropped so much recently is the large volume coming off lease. Since the same thing is likely to happen to the 2013's here in a couple months it might be worth the wait, The improved charger and heating systems on the SV model are worth something... FYI I'm not a fan of the 2014 since they removed the automatic 80% charge option, which was a real help to the battery life for those of you who weren't in need of full charge range regularly. See the CaniOn post about using LeafSpy to evaluate battery packs.]

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