First a short update on where new prices seem to be going: (subject to change, obviously)
Update to the update: O'Brian Mitsubishi (the 'home' dealer Mitsu-USA in Normal IL) seems to have the most new 2016 stock. I do not have any information on anyone's purchasing experiences with them. They quote a price of $12.9K which is not 'real' (It's after the federal credit)
As of last check they still had a dozen or so 2016's at around $20K. Even if you can't get exactly this deal, it does provide a useful 'line in the sand' for other negotiations. With around $1200 in delivery costs you're looking at a total around $21.2K, less the Federal Tax Credit of $7500 your final cost should be around $13,800-ish. Not bad, however, do keep an eye on what's happening on the used market. New LEAF's are also reduced somewhat and are now at these same levels for 2013 and 2014 models with low (under 10K miles) on them.
As mentioned in a previous post linked here, the depreciation curve for mass market electric vehicles doesn't look so hot. Tesla may (so far) be the exception. Everyone else is suffering a combination of things that drag the used valuations down; including but not limited to:
Battery life fears - The manufacturers seem to have roughly standardized on the 8yr/100K mi. battery warranty. This appears to have made the depreciation curve considerably steeper than 'normal.'
Off-Lease glut - When the manufacturers had some periods of slow unit sales a couple years ago they responded by offering amazingly low lease deals. This also helped with the customer's battery life fears issue(s). The result was a larger than normal percentage of these cars being leased rather than bought outright. Now all those leased vehicles are reaching the end of their 2 or 3 year lease periods and showing up on the used market. This is probably pushing used prices down $3-5K.
Obvious price adjustments - Pretty much everyone knows about the $7500 Federal Tax Credit, so you have to start the depreciation assumptions from (at the very least) that amount below the average new selling cost. There were also lots of relatively large dealer incentive/rebates flying around at various times, some as high as 30% off. This appears to have also affected prices by several thousand.
So what happens when you add all that up? The volume of iMiEV's is low enough that randomness and local influences have had significant impact on used pricing. Still; You probably shouldn't pay much more than $7-8K for even a great condition, under 10K mi. used 2014 iMiev.
The LEAF market is much bigger and the pricing there pretty much matches expectations: Lets say your 2013 LEAF was $33K minus some rebates and with the tax credit we're around $23K. Applying a steeper than average depreciation curve to the three years that's been out and a couple thousand for the other factors and we're probably looking at $11K-$15K as the current price for that car.
"That's Terrible!!" well, only if you're the seller. If you're the buyer it's GREAT.
Reality check: Good friend of mine just took delivery of a 2013 LEAF with under 5000 miles on it and near showroom condition. Not the bottom model either. Thanks to carlypso.com (now defunct) he paid $12.5K plus around $600 for delivery (they're based in CA). This car is in REALLY nice condition too. Delivery and transactions went pretty much without a hitch (it was a couple days late getting here.)
Looking at their website, that's a little below the average for the many LEAF's on there.
Not bad at all.
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