Q: Is Elon a jackass?
A: Duh! Yes, absolutely. Couple things about that though:
Elon has almost no day to day impact on the production or pricing of Tesla Cars. Other people actually handle that, just as SpaceX is actually run by Gwen Shotwell.
"But he's so awful now, I just can't buy a car from that!"
We hear you, but if you REALLY think that matters, then you are also not buying a Volvo, Toyota, Honda, Chevy, Jaguar, GMC, Scion, Acura, Nissan, Renault, Mazda, LandRover, Chrysler, Lexus, Fiat, Dodge or Jeep.
Why?
Because the heads' of those organizations are similar level assholes, they're just more quiet about it.
Now if what you really mean is: "I just can't be SEEN buying anything from him right now." then you're too shallow and steeped in hypocrisy for us to bother with. Please go away.
Rivan, Lucid and Ford all seem to be headed by nice folks, but I'd hold off on all three of those for about two years to see if they get their act together. The first two still have significant chance of going under and Ford has a lot to prove about the reliability of their EV's. People also think this must mean Tesla is headed for bankruptcy due to the big discounts. Not true but we'll handle that below* (Hint, they could make NO money on cars this year and STILL have positive cashflow)
<< Update to the update below, Late.'23: Production materials changes in (and all the cars going to Canada now being sourced from China) the Tesla Model 3 have resulted in all those being sold in the USA qualifying for the full federal rebate in Fall'23, but that ends Jan.1st. Incentives on 'current in stock' vehicles had resulted in Model 3 prices around $30-31K for current inventory after rebate. Rumor is, the existing stock is being blown out in preparation for the updated Model 3 'refresh' coming out in next year. The Oregon rebates are on hold until Spring '24, assuming it gets funded at all. Had both rebates been in place, at the same time, We'd have jumped on it. $24K was too low to pass up. Alas it was not to be... ;-(
<< Update Apr.'23: The lower priced Model 3 has LFP batteries that are not made in the U.S. As a result the tax break drops in half to $3750 as of Apr.17th on that model. The IRS/EPA will update this info after a 'comment' period ending this summer. The Oregon $2500 rebate may still apply (see below).
The Model Y with U.S. made batteries does still (Fed) qualify. There is also another price drop bringing the lower priced variants below Oregon $50K requirements. There's even news of a RWD 'Canada only' variant that's the equivalent of $46K so it's possible that version could be available (and produced in) the U.S. Given various state (or Province) incentives this could result in an effective total cost around $30K in Oregon, California and possibly Quebec if your income just happens to fall in the right ranges.
However: The Oregon rebate is running out of money at the end of April. It's not clear if that is going to be reinstated temporarily in Jan'24 or if purchases between now and then qualify. Oregon has turned into a crap-shoot for lower income buyers.
Also of note. The IRS has decided to go along with the EPA and NHTSA and just about everyone else, as a result the classification of the ModelY and Ford MachE has changed and the rebate now applies to all models under $80K. Doesn't change the Oregon ($50K) number alas.
End Updates.>>
A Tesla Model Y Long Range All Wheel Drive** that fetched $66K a month ago is now WAY lower, probably under $50K and then there's rebates - etc.
Similarly a Tesla Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive, at least with state incentives here has dropped to below $35K. (edit: sorry, expired.)
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| Model Y, base wheels, interior and color, under $50K incl. fees - etc. |
Yowza! That's some spicy discounts!
What the heck is going on? Is Tesla having a going-out-of-business sale?*
Nope. There's more than one thing going on, but you won't find the complexity in the business press headlines. Couple things to note:
These are nearly the same prices as the equivalent base model Tesla's were going for 2-2 1/2 years ago, but this is with federal tax rebates. The nominal selling price is still well above what they were selling for before. Tesla dropped the price on the 'regular' Model Y 'SUV' by enough so it qualifies, even with one option added (paint color -or- wheels -or- tow hitch) for the federal tax rebate. The Model 3 sedan already met the federal dollar limits for the credit and so got a much smaller discount, but now it slides under the number required ($50K) for many state rebates. At least here.
Elon and the higher-ups at Tesla all seem to seriously believe that we're headed for a significant recession. They are, as usual, being proactive. This probably isn't a major reason, but almost certainly part of it.
But wait, there's another complexity in the mix: Does this only go through March?
As noted in the previous post (EV's for cheap Take 3) there are significant disparities between the positions taken by the various federal agencies as to how to administer the economic mess contained within the enabling legislation. And yes, it's a giant hairball of compromises and wording targeted at getting votes rather than producing easy to administer results. The IRS, EPA, Treasury and Commerce Depts. have kicked the can down the road to 'March sometime' as to rule making regarding what qualifies. Do the above Teslas (and Chevy Bolt EUV) qualify right now? apparently Yes. Will they qualify after March? Uncertain. Plan accordingly.
*No Tesla is not going bankrupt. Well unless Ford and GM and all the others are going bankrupt as well. Tesla had a nearly 30% profit margin on their car business overall. This drops it to just below 20%. Ford, GM and Toyota make 3-4% on their car businesses and 0% (at best) on their EV's. Tesla actually still makes more in raw profits than the next five competitors combined. Even after this discount. As stated earlier they could make Zero Dollars on their car business and still be profitable because their energy business has such large margins (approaching 50%) granted they might have to cut back slightly on their expansion plans (if the zero dollars thing was real) but with even 15%+ margin, which seems highly likely, their plans should go forward just fine. Don't forget that the Tesla Semi is -just- reaching volume production, the Tesla Megapack is -just- reaching volume production and the Tesla pickup should reach volume production this year. Nobody else has a plan that's anywhere near this robust. Tesla is also sitting on more cash than the next several players combined. Again, enough to fund operations for much of the year.
** We had to stick a little caveat in here. The Tesla Long Range AWD Model Y was almost sold out through February to begin with. The Tesla Y 'Standard Range' has been almost unavailable in the U.S.
Combine all of this and the uncertainty surrounding 'What Happens After March?' and you should make sure your Tesla Model Y order is something you can cancel if the delivery date gets pushed out and you might lose the tax credit. Assuming that's important to you, and if not, why are you reading this blog?
They do seem to Model 3's in stock, but just about everything has Autopilot and thus a higher price. Surely that's just coincidence.
"So does this mean you're giving up your Leaf and getting one of these?"
No. A new Bolt EUV is still just over half what a Model 3 now goes for and well below half a Model Y.
The Leaf still has 16 mo. on it's lease, so there's time.
The next rig really needs to have a tow hitch, which requires a Model Y, still too expensive for us.
Leasing a Tesla is still not nearly as good a deal as Leafs have been and Bolts are becoming (YMMV) and since that is a requirement to qualify for the rebate, in our tax bracket, that issue would have to be resolved.
Insurance on Teslas is still prohibitively expensive for us.
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