Whence Tesla?

Since sitting through the whole four hours of "Tesla Investor Day" ...and since y'all being intelligent humans with better things to do, you night benefit from -not- having to sit through that.  ;-)

The first takeaway, (that some folks will like ;-) is that Elon talked less than 20% of the time.

It was pretty obvious that there were people with mostly full control of the various sections of the company. Especially Drew Baglino and Tom Zhu.

The team seems to be less that 50% white males, although female participation, while up, is still not impressive.

There was much less of Elon being Elon, that happens more on Twitter.

Second is the absolutely massive scale of the vision. They're thinking hard about the many PetaWatts of total energy use in the world and how to drive ALL of that to sustainable/usable/reusable.

One key thought is that an efficient electrically driven future requires only half as much total energy due to fossil fuels being SO inefficient. This crew is all about generation, transport and efficient use of energy. Home heating, transportation, manufacturing - etc. They expect total earth resource extraction to actually go down during all this.

Here's an overview, the first 15:min are the the real guts of the whole 'big picture'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIQ20RvhUhg

This was exciting stuff, at least for me. There's almost no part of the global

energy use and supply chain that this doesn't touch, and 'touch' really hard. ;-)
Good overview here too.  Full 'MasterPlan' PDF HERE  Environmental Impact Report HERE 

Third was on the Car/Transportation front. They're using the data they gather from literally billions of miles driven in Teslas to improve the driving experience -and- redesign the cars so they're protecting you from what actually happens during thousands of actual crashes to produce better outcomes than just paying attention to what the various government agencys might require. This should cause the 'safest cars on the road' to become even safer. And since they update the software in the cars on a monthly basis, you don't have to get a new car to benefit.

There was a sub-topic on car-self-driving and how having that available will help aging populations remain mobile and also how then your car can be off transporting other people when you're not using it. And of course how big a deal that could be, reducing the overall cost of your car, -and- requiring fewer cars on the road.

Another major topic was materials sciences and supply chains.

There are major issues with the world wide supply and (dirty) mining of Nickel and Cobalt.

100% of Teslas batteries used both of those in 2020. It's at around 50% now, it's expected that only about 10-20% of their total battery production will use ANY cobalt or nickel in another three years. A similar thing is going on with the Rare Earth minerals that go into electric motors/magnets. They have redesigned the motors to require NO rare-earths going forward. Similar things came up again and again, they have an issue, they design around it, they get it going as fast as possible, and almost always at lower cost. Computer chips, sensors, actuators, wiring - etc.

They are turning those thought processes toward Lithium and Graphite refining, expecting new facilities to be up and running in ten months from ground-breaking. Similar thought processes are being applied to actually designing and building factories. They are seeing the recent stuff go from bare ground to initial production in ten months. Well, except in California and Germany.

The latest/newest will be in Monterey Mexico,

      Edit Apr.'23: There's an addedum ** at the bottom about car production scaling and costs as this impacts the 'once and future $25K Tesla (built there in Mexico).

There was a big section about the whole electrical grid and (basically) redesigning how the whole thing operates. Yep, thinking big.

We edited the graph a bit, it wasn't exponential enough given (now, Apr.'23)
projected MegaPack factories in China and Europe

As a BTW in this there were mentions of how they expect the Tesla Energy business to be considerably bigger than the car business and a mention of how the automation business (robots) would also be bigger than the car biz. If their car business is expacted to deliver 20 Million cars/year by the end of the decade, then those other businesses must become truely gigantic. 

Another thing that came up repeatedly is how pretty much all of these things have advanced in the last ten years and how almost all of it has been on (and will continue) an exponential growth curve.

They did NOT announce the next generation of car platform(s), which many people had expected,  just the roadmap in that direction. As a result the stock took a hit, an awesome example of short term thinking. The next-gen car is expected to be what the Monterey Mexico plant churns out first.

One thing that we might add that didn't get touched on much is the expertise they've generated (via SpaceX) to create Methane from electricity, CO2 and Water.

This could completely turn the airline industry to carbon-neutral in a decade. Batteries power short haul flights, Methane powers the long haul. [Methane generates CO2 when burned, but it's exactly the same amount as you removed from the environment during it's creation.] ...just a cool little (not part of the presentation) thing along the way...

One last bit is that Tesla is blowing the competition out of the water on is fast charging infrastructure: 45,000 stalls currently active, 99.9% uptime. Recent US & State govt. supplied figures show that a Tesla Supercharger fast charging station costs around $40K each to put in. The competition averaged OVER three times that. Some over 4X.
When the EV driver uses the Tesla app to find and schedule and pay for charging, which also figures out in realtime what the demand at various stations is going to be and routes you to an available stall. It may suggest stoping at a different charger location that is along the trip you have already planned if you're going to be facing a wait. Then you'll pay 50-80% as much as the competitors per KWh delivered to your car. And since they're rapidly adding (50% in Europe already) the ability for ALL EVs to use Tesla chargers and the Tesla app, this usage should grow rapidly. Along the way they'll be exposed to the reliability and conveinience of the stations while looking at Tesla advertising on the app.
In locations where electricity is expensive they've started to put in Tesla Megapack (giant grid-tied batteries) to reduce the cost to the driver. The battery and associated 'AutoBidder' software buys energy during the parts of the day where the rates are cheapest and sells that energy back to both the EV drivers. and back to the grid during high demand (and high price) periods.

We'll leave you with photos that go some way to explaining how a team of four plus a crane operator can install 16 Tesla Supercharger stations on a prepared site IN ONE DAY. This by comparison with 4-6 weeks for their competitors.

** Here is a graphic about how costs go down over time as production and materials processes improve. An application of Wright's Law, which shows that for every cumulative doubling of unit production, Tesla's processes have yielded a 15% reduction in manufacturing costs. This doesn't seem like much but remember it's a cumulative (exponential) gain. This example uses known results from Tesla Model 3 production. While those numbers are impressive, each new generation of factory production processes has yielded an additional 20% improvement on top of this 'base-line'. So the question of "Will Tesla be able to make the fabled $25K third generation car in the new factory in Mexico?" comes up 'Yes' using just the extrapolation of current trends, ie: no great technological breakthroughs required.
So will there be a $25K (in 2021 dollars) Tesla introduced in 2025?    Maybe not. 

Remember that the earliest production from a new facility on a new generation of car skews toward the higher price 'optioned' version of the vehicle, until some of the factory costs are amortized and the volume ramp improves efficiencies, which takes a year or so given examples in Austin and Germany. The 20% improvement in processes noted above exactly matches with a $20K per unit Mfg.cost and would yield a price around $28K. Could easily happen, after the ramp is complete, Don't forget that $28K=(a 2021  '$25K' + Inflation at 3%/yr.)
Also see the Post About Battery Costs, as by then battery pack costs for U.S. deliveries could have dropped in half, or better! Seems like that should improve the odds.

And, for the record, GM, Ford, Stellantis, VW, Toyota and Honda are not keeping up and show no signs of closing the gap. The 36% Gross Margin (and about 20% net margin) shown as a consistent expectation below is no where near matched by any of these. In fact you can pretty much assume ZERO net margin for all of these other companies (excepting possibly VW) throughout 2025. 
 

GM = raw Gross Margin, Model3. Note: Mid 2021, early 2023, mid-late 2025

>> Edit: Oops, our bad. The price for a Model3 has already fallen to $37.5K in 2023, so the gross margin above  cannot realistically be assumed to stay at 36%. We're guessing just below 30%, and yes this would push the net margins just below 20%. Still WAY better than anyone else. >>
Hmmm, a couple bits of feedback would tend to indicate that some folks aren't getting the point immediately above. Yes, this graphic is about Model3. It's also about the raw cost of components plus labor, not the cost of development or investment in new factories, thus the 36% above becomes 20% after the accountants get through with it. The point is: having that number stay the same as the selling price of the car marches downward.
No, it's not directly about the 'Model2' or whatever the next-gen Tesla is called.
The next-gen Model2 factory in Mexico should go on line in late 2024 and be ramped-up during 2025.
If they're even close to the new factory being 20% more efficient and the materials going into a slightly smaller vehicle plus manufacturing improvements resulting in 25% or more reduced costs, then a vehicle cost 20% or better lower than the Model3 example above is almost certainly within reach. Add in the battery cost reductions and the end result should meet or exceed the $25K 'low cost Tesla' goal, WHILE MAINTAINING the 30%+ Gross Margin that Tesla has been 'doing' for years. 
Since there is no competition that's maintaining even single digit Gross Margins, the competition will simply have NO ROOM to fight that price war. Heck they are unlikely to be able to make a profit at $35K, to say nothing of $25K. This will almost certainly result in various bits of Government Intervention to 'Level the Playing Field' ...also known as taxing the heck out of Tesla or simply not letting them in. How the U.S. is going to handle Tesla killing large portions of uncompetitive automakers like Ford and GM will be interesting. Our guess is that Tesla will 'magically' become ineligible for the U.S. car rebates and/or $35/KWh battery subsidy at some point.

 

Is $20K off your Tesla enough? EVs4Cheap take 4

Q: Is Elon a jackass?
A: Duh!  Yes, absolutely.        Couple things about that though:
      Elon has almost no day to day impact on the production or pricing of Tesla Cars. Other people actually handle that, just as SpaceX is actually run by Gwen Shotwell. 
      "But he's so awful now, I just can't buy a car from that!"
We hear you, but if you REALLY think that matters, then you are also not buying a Volvo, Toyota, Honda, Chevy, Jaguar, GMC, Scion, Acura, Nissan, Renault, Mazda, LandRover, Chrysler, Lexus, Fiat, Dodge or Jeep. 
Why?
Because the heads' of those organizations are similar level assholes, they're just more quiet about it.
Now if what you really mean is: "I just can't be SEEN buying anything from him right now." then you're too shallow and steeped in hypocrisy for us to bother with. Please go away.
Rivan, Lucid and Ford all seem to be headed by nice folks, but I'd hold off on all three of those for about two years to see if they get their act together. The first two still have significant chance of going under and Ford has a lot to prove about the reliability of their EV's. People also think this must mean Tesla is headed for bankruptcy due to the big discounts. Not true but we'll handle that below* (Hint, they could make NO money on cars this year and STILL have positive cashflow)

<< Update to the update below, Late.'23:    Production materials changes in (and all the cars going to Canada now being sourced from China) the Tesla Model 3 have resulted in all those being sold in the USA qualifying for the full federal rebate in Fall'23, but that ends Jan.1st. Incentives on 'current in stock' vehicles had resulted in Model 3 prices around $30-31K for current inventory after rebate. Rumor is, the existing stock is being blown out in preparation for the updated Model 3 'refresh' coming out in next year. The Oregon rebates are on hold until Spring '24, assuming it gets funded at all. Had both rebates been in place, at the same time, We'd have jumped on it. $24K was too low to pass up. Alas it was not to be... ;-(
<< Update Apr.'23:     The lower priced Model 3 has LFP batteries that are not made in the U.S.  As a result the tax break drops in half to $3750 as of Apr.17th on that model. The IRS/EPA will update this info after a 'comment' period ending this summer. The Oregon $2500 rebate may still apply (see below).
The Model Y with U.S. made batteries does still (Fed) qualify. There is also another price drop bringing the lower priced variants below Oregon $50K requirements. There's even news of a RWD 'Canada only' variant that's the equivalent of $46K so it's possible that version could be available (and produced in) the U.S. Given various state (or Province) incentives this could result in an effective total cost around $30K in Oregon, California and possibly Quebec if your income just happens to fall in the right ranges.
However: The Oregon rebate is running out of money at the end of April. It's not clear if that is going to be reinstated temporarily in Jan'24 or if purchases between now and then qualify. Oregon has turned into a crap-shoot for lower income buyers.
Also of note. The IRS has decided to go along with the EPA and NHTSA and just about everyone else, as a result the classification of the ModelY and Ford MachE has changed and the rebate now applies to all models under $80K. Doesn't change the Oregon ($50K) number alas.       
End Updates.>>

A Tesla Model Y Long Range All Wheel Drive**  that fetched $66K a month ago is now WAY lower, probably under $50K and then there's rebates - etc. 

Similarly a Tesla Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive, at least with state incentives here has dropped to below $35K. (edit: sorry, expired.)

Model Y, base wheels, interior and color, under $50K incl. fees - etc.

Yowza! That's some spicy discounts!

What the heck is going on? Is Tesla having a going-out-of-business sale?*
Nope. There's more than one thing going on, but you won't find the complexity in the business press headlines. Couple things to note:
These are nearly the same prices as the equivalent base model Tesla's were going for 2-2 1/2 years ago, but this is with federal tax rebates. The nominal selling price is still well above what they were selling for before. Tesla dropped the price on the 'regular' Model Y 'SUV' by enough so it qualifies, even with one option added (paint color -or- wheels -or- tow hitch) for the federal tax rebate. The Model 3 sedan already met the federal dollar limits for the credit and so got a much smaller discount, but now it slides under the number required ($50K) for many state rebates. At least here.
Elon and the higher-ups at Tesla all seem to seriously believe that we're headed for a significant recession. They are, as usual, being proactive. This probably isn't a major reason, but almost certainly part of it.

But wait, there's another complexity in the mix: Does this only go through March?

As noted in the previous post (EV's for cheap Take 3) there are significant disparities between the positions taken by the various federal agencies as to how to administer the economic mess contained within the enabling legislation. And yes, it's a giant hairball of compromises and wording targeted at getting votes rather than producing easy to administer results. The IRS, EPA, Treasury and Commerce Depts. have kicked the can down the road to 'March sometime' as to rule making regarding what qualifies. Do the above Teslas (and Chevy Bolt EUV) qualify right now? apparently Yes. Will they qualify after March? Uncertain. Plan accordingly.

*No Tesla is not going bankrupt. Well unless Ford and GM and all the others are going bankrupt as well. Tesla had a nearly 30% profit margin on their car business overall. This drops it to just below 20%. Ford, GM and Toyota make 3-4% on their car businesses and 0% (at best) on their EV's. Tesla actually still makes more in raw profits than the next five competitors combined. Even after this discount. As stated earlier they could make Zero Dollars on their car business and still be profitable because their energy business has such large margins (approaching 50%) granted they might have to cut back slightly on their expansion plans (if the zero dollars thing was real) but with even 15%+ margin, which seems highly likely, their plans should go forward just fine. Don't forget that the Tesla Semi is -just- reaching volume production, the Tesla Megapack is -just- reaching volume production and the Tesla pickup should reach volume production this year. Nobody else has a plan that's anywhere near this robust. Tesla is also sitting on more cash than the next several players combined. Again, enough to fund operations for much of the year.

** We had to stick a little caveat in here. The Tesla Long Range AWD Model Y was almost sold out through February to begin with. The Tesla Y 'Standard Range' has been almost unavailable in the U.S. 
Combine all of this and the uncertainty surrounding 'What Happens After March?' and you should make sure your Tesla Model Y order is something you can cancel if the delivery date gets pushed out and you might lose the tax credit. Assuming that's important to you, and if not, why are you reading this blog?
They do seem to Model 3's in stock, but just about everything has Autopilot and thus a higher price. Surely that's just coincidence. 

"So does this mean you're giving up your Leaf and getting one of these?"
No. A new Bolt EUV is still just over half what a Model 3 now goes for and well below half a Model Y.
The Leaf still has 16 mo. on it's lease, so there's time.
The next rig really needs to have a tow hitch, which requires a Model Y, still too expensive for us.
Leasing a Tesla is still not nearly as good a deal as Leafs have been and Bolts are becoming (YMMV) and since that is a requirement to qualify for the rebate, in our tax bracket, that issue would have to be resolved.
Insurance on Teslas is still prohibitively expensive for us.

EV Buying on the cheap, Take 3:

Edit Early'24: This actually went on longer than expected. Production continued for months after the announcement. We know two people who bought a Chevy EUV base model for mid-high $23K out the door from local dealers (the $7500 rebate is now at point-of-sale). Very cool and a pretty impressive vehicle for $23K. Granted there's not much stock left and you have to find a dealer who has actual scruples.

Edit Apr.2023: This is pretty much DEAD. Chevy Bolt stock (especially the cheaper ones) sold out by February in most areas. The remainders had price jacks like you wouldn't believe. As of April 17th the Federal Rebate dropped in half (due to the batteries being made in Korea.) but since you can't get one at a reasonable price anyway...
This lower rebate is also true of most cheaper Teslas, KIA/Hyundai and VW's. The ones under $50K still qualify for the Oregon rebate until Apr.30th. After that the fund runs out of money.

Edit Jan.2023: There's been some reaction to headlines of "GM raises Bolt price just in time for Fed credit!"
Remain calm. First, the increase is around $600, not the tsunami the lurid headlines would have you believe. Second, GM dealers have been sticking it to their customers by much more than that in most markets already. Good negotiating skills or contact with a car broker might be indicated. and Thirdly, we had posited the price for the EUV as mid-high $29K range and that still holds. Back to our regularly scheduled trainwreck:

Those who have been paying attention over time may have noticed some previous posts about buying an EV for substantially less than you might expect. Mostly about getting a new Nissan Leaf for $15,000 or $18,000 or whatever. This post is about an alternative. Similar price range, similar size and capabilities, MUCH better charging infrastructure and somewhat lower reliability. Granted that's comparing reliability to a vehicle (Leaf) that's been in continuous production for over ten years and has about as close to perfect reliability stats as any car ever.

2023 Chevy Bolt EUV w/$500 (silly) 'Appearance' package

As you might have guessed from the picture, we're talking about the Chevy Bolt EUV. The same one that got (mostly) excluded from discussion before due to not qualifying for the Federal tax credit because GM squandered all their credits on plug-in hybrids. There might, repeat MIGHT be a short window of opportunity wherein it surely does quality for the full tax credit: January - March 2023. We're not saying here that this WILL work, just that it seems probable that it will. A confluence of improbable events, and may the buyer beware ...and do their due diligence beforehand!
     The so called Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has in it some very complicated EV Rebate provisions, where most of the complexity involves rather transparent provisions designed to exclude China from the US auto market, without calling them out by name.  It re-instates the $7500 federal tax credit for EV's and then applies a variety of exclusions as to where the vehicle is assembled and where the parts come from, especially batteries and battery-making materials. The Bolt was originally assembled in the US with about 70% of the dollar-value of parts made by LG in S.Korea. LG still makes pretty much every important component in the car; Motor, Batteries, Electronics, Controllers, Charging, HVAC, Sensors - etc. However, much of that has been moved to production facilities in Michigan so the US-built content percentage is increasing rapidly.
This brings up to the complexity part. How does the EPA, Commerce Dept. Treasury Dept. and IRS all get together to certify where things were built and when? Granted only roughly 25% of the Bolt is made in a US owned factory with union labor, and that was the Biden administration's real goal, but that 25% is the ONLY US union labor going into any EV currently available. Tesla, Nissan, LG, Ford EV (Made in Mexico) are all non-union shops. Yes, it's going to be a regulatory mess, made more complicated by the 'oops' exclusion of our traditional trading partners like Korea, Japan and Germany. Here is Electrek's take on what or who qualifies. Almost required reading

Better in White or Silver? The $500 red lines are still silly.

As far as we can tell the Bolt has been more or less approved for the full rebate as of Jan.1st 2023. As much as anybody has been approved.  However some of the 'rule making' has been pushed out to March. That -might- mean that only partial rebate ($3750) applies after rule-making is completed. The $7500 appears to have pretty good odds but who knows. This ambiguity is even bigger for Hyundai and Kia and VW, whose mix of US built content is less clear and possibly lower. Ford (Mexico, except for important stuff like batteries and motors) also seems to be approved for right now. Even if they all get approved for 2023, the rules change in 2024 and the courts haven't weighed in yet.

The pricing on recent Bolt vehicles has been considerably reduced, at least in theory, to ~$26K for the base Bolt and high ~$29K range for the longer wider taller EUV version. Having seen both of them we can't imagine not getting the EUV version. There was nothing in the 'Premier' (add $4000+) package that we can imaging wanting (leather seats? Ewww) but given the higher profit margins, guess which one the dealers are ordering... Well plus all the other fancy floor mats and undercoating, er, profit making that they add, and don't forget 'additional dealer markup' by whatever name.

So what does this look like if you actually try to get one? Few Chevy dealers want "That EV Shit" sitting on their lots, especially since the likely profits from maintenance (traditionally a high percentage of the profit from car sales) is near zero for most EVs, so the dealer part of the equation could be by far the most difficult part.
Imagine, in your fondest dreams, that you manage to nail down a 2023 Bolt EUV for $29K or a bit above. Fed. credit $7500, State credit (here at least, YMMV) $2500. Yay! New car for under $20K!
Yes, that's ONE THIRD of a Tesla Model Y -after- rebates.

Just make sure you do your homework before contacting the dealer. And as in the past, we recommend going through your Credit Union or Costco discount portal (if applicable) and doing as much of the negotiations online and through email as possible. Get it in writing. Print it all out and take it with you so you have something to beat the dealer's poor hungry salesperson over the head with when they (or more likely their manager) try to change the deal. A high probability in our experience.
That said the last three cars we've gotten have been through the 'Internet Sales Manager' at the dealer who 'won' the selection process (two out of three of those have been in a different state than we live in) and we walked out the door at pretty much exactly the price pre-negotiated. The one case where they tried bait-and-switch we walked out, after loudly letting everyone in the dealer looking at cars know what slimeballs they were. Have a plan B. Granted this takes time, but in our case that time has paid off at a rate of around $300/hr. ...not too bad...
_____________

You'll note that there's little mention of the other EV players here. The Hyundai Ioniq5 and Kia EV6 are really nice cars, the VW ID4 is OK too, the Tesla Models 3 and Y are exceptional. They all have pricing that puts them at a realistic $40K and up (yes, yes: $38,995 + + ... whatever) Even assuming they qualify for all the rebates they still end up costing 50% more than the players we're talking about here. $30K+ is not a cheap EV regardless of how nice they are. It's a different market segment and if that's the segment you live in, well, you're probably not reading this to begin with ;-)
We also don't talk about the Ford Mustang EV. Similar $40K+ price and an 18 month lead-time to get one.

Q&A:

"You've been a Nissan shill for years, why are you now recommending Chevy?"
Nissans have been fine, especially for folks in our income bracket, where basically there wasn't anything else available. You'll note we bought a Mitsubishi iMiev first. Too bad they, like all of the other (non-Nissan) Japanese manufacturers have basically opted out of the EV market. We don't, historically, support jingoistic lying opportunists like GM, but they (via LG of Korea) now have a reasonable product at a reasonable price. Dealing with the Chevy/GM organization may still present challenges.

"I thought the Chevys were all being recalled for burning down people's houses?"
Well, not all of them, though I still wouldn't park anything with an NMC or NCA battery chemistry (see pervious posts) under my bedroom. Since it's mostly an LG content car and they plus GM seem to be doing a good job of 'making it right' that does not appear to be a big concern. Note that even at it's worst the Bolt (and or Tesla) fires have still been much less common than gas cars burning down.  Turns out gasoline is still highly flammable. Doesn't make for lurid media coverage though.
That said, even without the battery issues Bolts have had no better than 'average' Chevy quality, which isn't saying much. You should plan on one or two dealer visits for one thing or another. Probably nothing major nor unusual for the average car. We hear Mustang EV's are doing no better. Contrast this with the ZERO dealer visits we've had across three Nissan Leafs to date! (One visit for an optional software update)

"So the Bolt is better than the Leaf?"
Depends on what's important to you. The original Bolt seats were quite uncomfortable for some people, but that has improved. The charging port on the Bolt is considerably more available out 'in the wild' and it has longer (base product) range so it's arguably much better for longer trips. Some people hate GM. Some people hate Japanese cars or prefer 'American Made.'  Although how they square this with the 90%+ American made Nissan Leaf and the ~40% American made Bolt and ignore the Korean part is hard to imagine. 
The interior volume of the EUV is larger than the ($2000 cheaper) 'regular' Bolt. However even the bigger one is only just barely a match for the Leaf and maybe just slightly smaller cargo volume.
Having just been through a 2500 mile road trip in the Leaf (see immediately previous post) we can say that it's unlikely we'll buy another Leaf. Their failure to update the charging connector from CHAdeMO (Nisssan's 'standard') to CCS should be regarded as highly suspect going forward. If you're only buying for local travel this shouldn't matter and the Leaf remains an excellent and highly reliable low cost choice.
One thing that's not better is the charging speed. The Bolt has the CCS connector, of which you can find many more while out tripping. But it doesn't seem to make good use of the available charge rates, topping out at around 50KW, pretty much like a Leaf and so takes twice or three times as long to charge up at a public charger than some of it's competitors. Granted those other cars cost nearly twice as much.

Availability: We found literally hundreds of base model 2023 Chevrolet Bole EUV LT on CARS.COM for under $29K. No doubt some are bait-n-switch (lots of wiggle room in the wording) but the nearest one to us was 445 miles away. We've gone 200+ miles to pick up a car before, but that seems kinda long. Everyone closer has added a couple thousand additional markup or only carries the Premium version(s) for $4K-$7K more. They're looking out for their bottom line (translation: Screw You) so be prepared for some negotiations, or travel.
To be fair, there's only a few Nissan Leafs under $30K within 100 miles of us and those are the ones with 150 miles of driving range as opposed to the EUV's 200-230 (real world). As they say, YMMV.

One additional low income wrinkle:
Nissan (NMAC) has been very good about passing on the full tax credit for people who otherwise (low income) would not qualify for any tax credits ... like us.  We've posted about this before. Apparently GMAC has gotten better about this than they were back when we posted about that, but check Really Carefully before signing anything. There are snakes in the grass.

2500 mi. for free? Nope.

For those of you following along with the 'for free' trip reports: 900 mi.for free, and the somewhat related 50K mi. for free we have this latest missive regarding a little trip to SandyEggo. After careful planning and consideration (OK, 20 min. on PlugShare.com) Eugene to San Diego and back for free looked do-able.
          Just to get this out up front: EV 'Public Charging' vendors used during this trip and
          their relative success rates in %% and number of (charge attempts.)

Bars are success rate in percent.

So, the whole thing was somewhat spoiled by the less than stellar competence at charging vendor EVGO.
More on that later.

Making the trip for free-ish in a Nissan Leaf ePlus seemed feasible. Granted, the Nissan still sports the ancient and creaky CHAdeMO fast charging connector, which, while it was amazing in 2011 is now the rarest, slowest and most likely to be broken/blocked of the available fast charging types. Instead of the current CCS standard.  Translation: Don't buy a Leaf for distance travel. OTOH: Adds to the adventure! ...Well that and it's the dead of winter wherein EV's get crappy range and passes can be impassable.
We did mention adventure, right?
As core components in the plan, we had a new "First 30 days for free at EVCS" account set up by our traveling companion (I had already used my free 30 days in the last post of this type) which would meet around 50-60% of our charging requirements. The second major component was all the new free Caltrans charging stations that have been put onto rest-stops in California, which should handle most of the remaining 40-50%. Way to go CA!
In this instance they have made good use of the money dumped on them due to VW getting caught with it's hand in the cookie jar (see 'dieselgate'), which partially makes up for their poor performance during the rollout of the West Coast Electric Highway ten years ago.
Any remaining little charging should fit into the $200+ left in the 'free charging' account we got with EVGO when purchasing the car*

Executive summary: For persons with minimal attention span.
(No executives were executed during the execution of this exemplan ;-)
           2500 miles, 19 charge stops, total billing $91 or about 3.6 cents/mile. ~700KWh total.
                                                                 (Compare with Gas at $0.12-0.20/mile)

Day one, Start at 100% charge.   
First stop Grants Pass 120 mi Down to 26%   EVCS free 45kw, 1.2 hrs ~50 KW onboard. Lunch stop.
Cold and wet and headwinds and heaters do not make for great range numbers.

2nd stop Yreka Carl's Junior: 50 Mi (Siskiyou passes) Down to 50%
EVGO clusterfuck. EVGO is supposedly a completely cross-account billing partner with ChargePoint. Except NOT!
   Failure #1: EVGO RFID Card. We checked this with EVGO support before leaving. Yep it's the right one!
So of course it doesn't work. Chargepoint later helpfully points out that it's not a ChargePoint card. Thanks for that, I must have been blind. It does work on actual EVGO stations as you'll see later.
   Failure #2: the EVGO app won't complete registration with an existing account because the phone# provided is 'already in use' despite that exact phone number showing up correctly in their web based account management screen. ...only fails with the app. Yeah, that app, the one you need to use to get the charger going. Extensive attempts at phone and email support, reinstall app. clear out cache/data, reinstall again. No joy, but lots of frustration. The people I'm dealing with are really nice, they just can't fix it. They spent a couple calls, several emails and did finally get this fixed so the app would actually load, about TEN DAYS after we started. Even then we had no luck getting it to actually work. I think 'abject failure' was mentioned earlier.
   Failure #3: The phone support person suggests using their web portal, since all that information is correct.  It's almost impossible to operate on the phone screen due to a number of bad design decisions. Small very light green text on a bright white background? For use outside? Really? And then once you get it deciphered the advertising they have added on top MUST have it's screen realestate, covering up important parts of the form.
So of course it doesn't work. "Failed to Initialize"   More than once. Nobody knows why.
We're too far from the next viable charger so;
   Finally we drag out the ChargePoint app and it't starts the charger right up and bills up $13.75 for the charge. Yay!  ...except we have money already on account at EVGO to the tune of $236. ...that apparently we can't use.      45kw peak, 0.75 hrs ~28 KW onboard

    3rd Stop: EVGO Orland exit 900 Newville Rd.  155 miles and about 9% left, gotta charge!
So, it's EVGO. "The appearance of actual charging!" ...ya know, without any actual charging.
    Failure #4 & #5 More than half the chargers here are non-functional to begin-with. The two forlorn examples remaining wake right up, screens respond, the RFID card works the account authenticates, the charger initializes and starts charge ... and complete failure. "Error Start Signal" (from the car) so of course it's the car's fault. Previous reports from this location so indicate (according to Plugshare posts).  Thus we don't even bother calling, after all we still have eleven miles of range left and the next charger is only 7 miles down the road.
What could go wrong?
    Nothing went wrong, technically this is the 4th stop, but we're counting it as #3.2  and despite being in the northbound rest stop (when we're traveling south) the Free CalTrans charger there works like a champ. Well,  after we help move the guy who has thrown-up all over the inside of his vehicle and parked at the only EV stall, the farthest one along. He was really nice, except for the smell.
    So, CalTrans: 162 miles actually (remember it's downhill from the passes). from 9% to 60% in less than an hour. Pretty good for free. We're doing this CalTrans thing again! Free is nice and it works despite having the same exact connector assembly, screen and software as the EVGO stuff that just failed spectacularly, granted it's the previous software version that hasn't been 'improved' to make CCS (non Nissan LEAF) connections faster.

So we get back on the freeway and arrive at the night's stop at Fairfield Inn in Sacramento. This place was chosen in part because they have charging from EVCS, therefore free to us, plus the rooms are nice (except the noisy heatpump) and the price is reasonable.
The battery had a hard day and takes two hours to go from 4% to 95%. The EVCS chargers are not fast, even with a battery that's not over-warmed-up. Still what do we care, overnight stop.

Next day:

With near 100% full and warmer temps. we looked at maybe trying to make it all the way to Caltrans at Kettleman City. Could -almost- do it but 212 is a lot of highway miles to be assuming about.
Fortunately there was a good short half way solution.
Westleys Rest Stop, 113 miles, CalTrans Free EV charging. We took it from 50% to 68% in about 20 min. The interesting part (to us) is that it didn't show up on the PlugShare or Caltanns maps nor was there a sign. We just stopped for the restroom and there it was. The original plan was to hit the northbound rest stop there since is IS on the map. Note that a number of the CalTrans charging network are not on the map, and some that are, are NOT  reporting their in-use/functional status.
      Failure #6: NOT EVGO!  Yay?  Kettleman City CalTrans Maint. Depot
CalTrans EV chargers here, two units both with the same problem. The touchscreens wouldn't register 'touches' and since you have to push some virtual buttons to get the charge to start...
To add insult to injury the phone number prominently displayed for help plays a nice "This number is not yet in service" jingle for you. ...this was supposed to be a free charging stop so it was scheduled for a bigger charge. Oops.   [Edit: Comments left on Plugshare later indicate that the responses might just be slow. Apparently if you wait about two min. after plugging in, the indicator, for one of the two chargers, -might- turn green and allow you to hit the Start button. We were just impatient?]

We went down the street to the Electrify America EV Charging stations to rub elbows with the well heeled EV folks. Several $80K+ vehicles there. We bought just enough to ensure passage to the Tejon Pass Rest Stop CalTrans EV station about 110 miles south. $18.06 for roughly 42Kw while we walked to a restaurant. 

Tejon Pass EV Chargers, Caltrans, Free
Two out of the four were working which was good because only one was in use. The car really needed it after crawling 4200 feet elevation up the Grapevine. 15% to 80% in 45 min.
...which was plenty since LA is all down hill from there.

It's fun to have the very responsive acceleration of the EV during the cut-and-thrust of near rush-hour LA traffic. Still took almost three hours to make it to Anaheim.
Oddly enough the nearest EV charging to the Disney complex is an EVCS 4-stall at a medical center. Since we had to run across LA to the Burbank airport twice in rush-hour traffic (actually six times total for the trip)  Two of the chargers there worked great. Plugshare says one is intermittent and one non-functional (about par-for-the-course) so we didn't try those. We charged there something like five-six times. Worked great although the location seems somewhat sketchy. Walking distance to a store and a couple eateries. Our first time ever at El Pollo Loco. Woo!

Rolling over 1000 miles and 20 Hrs at the same time.

In theory, a full charge in Anaheim should be enough to make it 95 mi. to San Diego and back, right? Well, with a little local fussing about things looked a little tight so we stopped on the way back at the San Clemente city hall to give EVGO yet another chance to fail, which they did! Fail that is. RFID: Fail. EVGO App: Fail. Chargepoint App: Success! ...but we're $18 poorer.

This was enough to make it through LA and out to the Tejon Pass free CalTrans location. Still worked great although one of the four chargers was down. We had a 5 min. wait.  It was about 1:25 to go from 9% to 85%. We brought lunch with us just for this.

Little stop at the Same set of CalTrans rest-stops/chargers as we had going south. Free is good. and that took us all the way to Sacramento and the same Fairfield Inn/EVCS chargers. Both Marriott properties here have EVCS chargers and the all (8) seemed to be working. I wish that wasn't amazing.

Off we go in the morning and we pretty much used the same chargers going northward. Free at the rest stop, then another rest-stop and then over the pass (with lots of snow and ice!) and ChargePoint at Grants Pass. Should have gotten more than 80% charge level there since it was a downpour, blowing and 38.deg. We had a possible issue with getting home given the conditions, and opted to stop at the EVCS station at 7-Feathers Casino. (Note that the charger is actually on the other side of the freeway)
Here we were surprised to find that the 'Free!'  month that EVCS gives you for starting an account only really works for the first 200KWh you use during that month. Because of timing we actually got more like 230 KWh before getting the warning (both eMail -and- text) and getting dumped into  a 'bonus rate' of $0.29/KWh. which is still better than their regular rate of $50/Month -or- $0.49/KWh. ...so they did fine. In fact, EVCS was the star of the trip.

What did we learn on this trip? Pretty much same as we knew before:

Reliable long distance EV travel, ...should be done in a Tesla.

If not Tesla, then it will take somewhat more bother and time. In this case 2-3 hours extra over 12 days, but we just pulled out a book and read to fill the time, so no great loss. The heat and/or AC continue to work while you're charging if you do it right.

EVCS has REALLY upped their game. Taking over the remainders of the WCEH (see above) from Webato/AeroVironment ('AV' major defense contractor) who had really only set up the initial charging network along i5 and the coast in WA and OR (and bits of CA) to get a bunch of federal contract dollars, and EVCS have turned it into something that mostly works. AV had left an 'EV Desert' from Ashland to nearly Sacamento, making it almost impossible to make it down into CA without a 300 mi.range EV. EVCS and CalTrans have filled that gap at last. Eight years later. Yay-ish.

One could argue that this level of planning should not be necessary, and for Tesla owners it is not. The "Have Not's" have, as usual, a more difficult time of it, and trying to do it for free just adds to the complexity. We would probably have made it on zero dollars had EVGO's advertised cross-billing thing with ChargePoint actually worked (or if Anything EVGO had worked at all) although we'd still be facing that $18 at ElectrifyAmerica. Darn.
Close, but no cigar

There's a good Youtube about this.

Q&A

"Hey with my gas guzzler I'd have made half as many stops and been quick doing it!"

No you wouldn't. Between your tiny bladder and unwillingness to have your gas gauge go lower than one quarter tank you'd have been off the road almost the same number of times. Given meal breaks (when we were charging) and the somewhat longer stops we had sometimes, I doubt you'd have gained more than an hour or two overall. And, you'd have paid around $400 for that time. Go away.

"Is it REALLY this much bother traveling with an EV?"

No. You just buy a Tesla.

"But Elon is ICKY!"

Elon is not Tesla. It's mostly owned by and run by other folks. You just don't hear about that because,  well, Media.

And remember here we're talking here about our use of just about the worst long distance travel EV. Even then it's still very do-able. Just about any CCS charging port equipped car would have an easier time of it. Nissan won't convert the Leaf to CCS because it would cost money (and they're assholes, er, corporate personages. Same thing.)

"Hey, the numbers don't add up!"
We did start off with 100% charge, which should I guess show up as 60KWh  "Home $6 (1)" the rest is just rounding errors.

*Nissan had a deal with EVGO a couple years back wherein they provided the first $300 of charging on your new EVGO account for 'free' and given that it's over 100 miles to the nearest EVGO charging station, that hasn't seen much use except during trips to PDX where we've managed to run up a bill of a bit over sixty dollars during a four year period. We have, by the way, never gotten their app or RFID card to start a charging session at a ChargePoint charging station, something they continue to advertise.  Although to be fair, it might have worked once on the phone with their support folks after standing in the rain while on hold for awhile. Yes, hardly a ringing endorsement.  We have heard from people for whom EVGO has worked just fine. Our experience is simply different.

The Crossing Point: Ain't happening how they say.

Update for 1H '23 results just to show roughly where things are at compared to the various targets shown below. Here we have actual battery EV (BEV) sales as a year - to year comparison

Actual year2year registration data. Puts the crossover at ~Feb.2025 +/- 2 mo.

You'll see this fits the 50% curve below much closer than the 30% curve. This will all make sense when you read the rest of the post, trust us! Annnnd, back to the post:

Those of you who pay attention to the whole EV, Energy, Climate Change 'thing'  (and why else would you be reading this, surely it's not for the quality and brevity of the prose style) are already aware that major politicians expect 50% EV adoption as a 'stretch goal' by 2030. The big auto makers have pretty much gone along whether they want to or not, pushed along doubtless by their largest single market, California, declaring No New ICE (Internal Combustion Engine - 'gas') Cars by 2035.

Addendum early 2023:
Shown here is the 'S Curve' of how technology products advance in a market from a general perspective and then specific numbers released through the end of 2022. As you can see the world wide adoption of EVs is not exactly on the 'tech products' curve, but it's really close. Market share of 'traditional' vehicles is declining apace. Despite their manufacturers' claims of how it's all about supply/parts constraints. If that was really true then the EVs would have been impacted in a similar (or even more extreme) manner.

Idealized market 'takeover' curve

Drivers of the S curve

Actual world wide results through end of 2022. Note 1/3rd of the total by end of 2023
Note also that this most closely follows the 50% graph below.

On with the story: It was great to see a new V-Blog post on youtube by Lars, our favorite EV nut. Here are a couple key graphs from that presentation with a short (comparatively speaking) note on what this is about.

Note: All these numbers are from a world-wide perspective. Not just U.S. centric.

Many of you are aware that the EV market has been growing (remember: World Wide) by approximately 100% per year since late 2019. Granted this includes projections for the remainder of 2022.
     "Really? I hadn't heard that, are you sure?"
You're probably paying attention to U.S.-centric major news outlets that are drinking the 'Big Three' automaker's (and Politicians') kool-aid, er, perspective. They're projecting 50% by 2030.
Now obviously that 100% year-over-year growth rate can't continue indefinitely but there's strong evidence that we're just getting into the sharp upward part of the 'S' Curve that technology/innovation based products tend to observe.

Anyway, Lars projected current numbers and graphed what it would look like to hit that 50%-by-2030 goal. The surprise for most of you is that it only requires a 15% Y-o-Y growth rate. Not 100%/year. Not 50% or even 30%.

Click on it if you want a bigger version of the graph.

Yep, there's NO WAY that this slower growth is going to happen. Even if materials constraints, which we covered throughly in the last blog post, are a much bigger deal than anyone expects*, it will still shoot up faster than this. Note how the curve for EVs has to flatten off after 2022, way unlike how any committed EV manufacturer is projecting as worst-case.

Did some crude edits here to make it more 'S curve'-ish

Even if everyone in the EV industry is seriously delusional and the current growth rate of nearly 100%/year is equally delusional, a growth rate of 30% per year is the minimum we can even imagine happening. Heck the total shown here for 2022 is already low compared to real numbers. Push that blue line up by at least 1-2 million.
So that pushes the cross-over 50/50 point down into 2026. Note how that blue line still has to flatten out a whole bunch right at 2022 to make this graph work. Anybody think that's what's happening? Nope, didn't think so.

Say the recent near 100% growth rate is all B.S. Even extrapolating current, relatively conservative projections results in a 50%/year rate for the next couple years. Here's what that looks like, and what we regard as the most likely scenario. That puts the EV at half the world wide market no later than 2025. 
We're not saying here that the U.S. market will hit 50% by then. Large sections of the U.S. will be keeping their cranium's fully imbedded in their rectum for as long as possible. That will slow adoption. The established automakers and unions have a vested interest in slowing this down to match their ability to change without going bankrupt (which still seems the most likely scenario) and don't underestimate their political clout. Toyota and Honda have been dragging their feet for years now and that will add to the resistance.  As a result the 30% graph is more probable here in the USA. Note that's only 1.5 years different on the crossing point.

Sure, that yellow line at the top could take off, somehow global car demand shoots up a bunch. But even if that demand increase (which seems improbable) is all met by increased ICE production, that only pushes the 50/50 point by a couple months.
Do note the blue line includes plug-in hybrids. That was unavoidable due to how the data/stats are collected. They represent about 10-15% of that 'blue' total. The absolute number of those should continue at about the same raw number, but that will represent a declining percentage of the whole. It should, as 'pure' battery EVs become more viable over time.

What does this mean for us? We're rapidly divesting from any security or index fund that has a noticeable position in the 'Big Three' automakers or their suppliers that are tied to the gas-engine parts of things. Vote with your dollars!
We're probably not going to buy another electric car until the cheaper, longer lasting (but slightly lower range) LFP batteries (no Nickel or Cobalt!) become more readily available. See previous post about batteries.

* All prognostications are null and void in case of world war.