Is $20K off your Tesla enough? EVs4Cheap take 4

Q: Is Elon a jackass?
A: Duh!  Yes, absolutely.        Couple things about that though:
      Elon has almost no day to day impact on the production or pricing of Tesla Cars. Other people actually handle that, just as SpaceX is actually run by Gwen Shotwell. 
      "But he's so awful now, I just can't buy a car from that!"
We hear you, but if you REALLY think that matters, then you are also not buying a Volvo, Toyota, Honda, Chevy, Jaguar, GMC, Scion, Acura, Nissan, Renault, Mazda, LandRover, Chrysler, Lexus, Fiat, Dodge or Jeep. 
Why?
Because the heads' of those organizations are similar level assholes, they're just more quiet about it.
Now if what you really mean is: "I just can't be SEEN buying anything from him right now." then you're too shallow and steeped in hypocrisy for us to bother with. Please go away.
Rivan, Lucid and Ford all seem to be headed by nice folks, but I'd hold off on all three of those for about two years to see if they get their act together. The first two still have significant chance of going under and Ford has a lot to prove about the reliability of their EV's. People also think this must mean Tesla is headed for bankruptcy due to the big discounts. Not true but we'll handle that below* (Hint, they could make NO money on cars this year and STILL have positive cashflow)

<< Update to the update below, Late.'23:    Production materials changes in (and all the cars going to Canada now being sourced from China) the Tesla Model 3 have resulted in all those being sold in the USA qualifying for the full federal rebate in Fall'23, but that ends Jan.1st. Incentives on 'current in stock' vehicles had resulted in Model 3 prices around $30-31K for current inventory after rebate. Rumor is, the existing stock is being blown out in preparation for the updated Model 3 'refresh' coming out in next year. The Oregon rebates are on hold until Spring '24, assuming it gets funded at all. Had both rebates been in place, at the same time, We'd have jumped on it. $24K was too low to pass up. Alas it was not to be... ;-(
<< Update Apr.'23:     The lower priced Model 3 has LFP batteries that are not made in the U.S.  As a result the tax break drops in half to $3750 as of Apr.17th on that model. The IRS/EPA will update this info after a 'comment' period ending this summer. The Oregon $2500 rebate may still apply (see below).
The Model Y with U.S. made batteries does still (Fed) qualify. There is also another price drop bringing the lower priced variants below Oregon $50K requirements. There's even news of a RWD 'Canada only' variant that's the equivalent of $46K so it's possible that version could be available (and produced in) the U.S. Given various state (or Province) incentives this could result in an effective total cost around $30K in Oregon, California and possibly Quebec if your income just happens to fall in the right ranges.
However: The Oregon rebate is running out of money at the end of April. It's not clear if that is going to be reinstated temporarily in Jan'24 or if purchases between now and then qualify. Oregon has turned into a crap-shoot for lower income buyers.
Also of note. The IRS has decided to go along with the EPA and NHTSA and just about everyone else, as a result the classification of the ModelY and Ford MachE has changed and the rebate now applies to all models under $80K. Doesn't change the Oregon ($50K) number alas.       
End Updates.>>

A Tesla Model Y Long Range All Wheel Drive**  that fetched $66K a month ago is now WAY lower, probably under $50K and then there's rebates - etc. 

Similarly a Tesla Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive, at least with state incentives here has dropped to below $35K. (edit: sorry, expired.)

Model Y, base wheels, interior and color, under $50K incl. fees - etc.

Yowza! That's some spicy discounts!

What the heck is going on? Is Tesla having a going-out-of-business sale?*
Nope. There's more than one thing going on, but you won't find the complexity in the business press headlines. Couple things to note:
These are nearly the same prices as the equivalent base model Tesla's were going for 2-2 1/2 years ago, but this is with federal tax rebates. The nominal selling price is still well above what they were selling for before. Tesla dropped the price on the 'regular' Model Y 'SUV' by enough so it qualifies, even with one option added (paint color -or- wheels -or- tow hitch) for the federal tax rebate. The Model 3 sedan already met the federal dollar limits for the credit and so got a much smaller discount, but now it slides under the number required ($50K) for many state rebates. At least here.
Elon and the higher-ups at Tesla all seem to seriously believe that we're headed for a significant recession. They are, as usual, being proactive. This probably isn't a major reason, but almost certainly part of it.

But wait, there's another complexity in the mix: Does this only go through March?

As noted in the previous post (EV's for cheap Take 3) there are significant disparities between the positions taken by the various federal agencies as to how to administer the economic mess contained within the enabling legislation. And yes, it's a giant hairball of compromises and wording targeted at getting votes rather than producing easy to administer results. The IRS, EPA, Treasury and Commerce Depts. have kicked the can down the road to 'March sometime' as to rule making regarding what qualifies. Do the above Teslas (and Chevy Bolt EUV) qualify right now? apparently Yes. Will they qualify after March? Uncertain. Plan accordingly.

*No Tesla is not going bankrupt. Well unless Ford and GM and all the others are going bankrupt as well. Tesla had a nearly 30% profit margin on their car business overall. This drops it to just below 20%. Ford, GM and Toyota make 3-4% on their car businesses and 0% (at best) on their EV's. Tesla actually still makes more in raw profits than the next five competitors combined. Even after this discount. As stated earlier they could make Zero Dollars on their car business and still be profitable because their energy business has such large margins (approaching 50%) granted they might have to cut back slightly on their expansion plans (if the zero dollars thing was real) but with even 15%+ margin, which seems highly likely, their plans should go forward just fine. Don't forget that the Tesla Semi is -just- reaching volume production, the Tesla Megapack is -just- reaching volume production and the Tesla pickup should reach volume production this year. Nobody else has a plan that's anywhere near this robust. Tesla is also sitting on more cash than the next several players combined. Again, enough to fund operations for much of the year.

** We had to stick a little caveat in here. The Tesla Long Range AWD Model Y was almost sold out through February to begin with. The Tesla Y 'Standard Range' has been almost unavailable in the U.S. 
Combine all of this and the uncertainty surrounding 'What Happens After March?' and you should make sure your Tesla Model Y order is something you can cancel if the delivery date gets pushed out and you might lose the tax credit. Assuming that's important to you, and if not, why are you reading this blog?
They do seem to Model 3's in stock, but just about everything has Autopilot and thus a higher price. Surely that's just coincidence. 

"So does this mean you're giving up your Leaf and getting one of these?"
No. A new Bolt EUV is still just over half what a Model 3 now goes for and well below half a Model Y.
The Leaf still has 16 mo. on it's lease, so there's time.
The next rig really needs to have a tow hitch, which requires a Model Y, still too expensive for us.
Leasing a Tesla is still not nearly as good a deal as Leafs have been and Bolts are becoming (YMMV) and since that is a requirement to qualify for the rebate, in our tax bracket, that issue would have to be resolved.
Insurance on Teslas is still prohibitively expensive for us.

EV Buying on the cheap, Take 3:

Edit Early'24: This actually went on longer than expected. Production continued for months after the announcement. We know two people who bought a Chevy EUV base model for mid-high $23K out the door from local dealers (the $7500 rebate is now at point-of-sale). Very cool and a pretty impressive vehicle for $23K. Granted there's not much stock left and you have to find a dealer who has actual scruples.

Edit Apr.2023: This is pretty much DEAD. Chevy Bolt stock (especially the cheaper ones) sold out by February in most areas. The remainders had price jacks like you wouldn't believe. As of April 17th the Federal Rebate dropped in half (due to the batteries being made in Korea.) but since you can't get one at a reasonable price anyway...
This lower rebate is also true of most cheaper Teslas, KIA/Hyundai and VW's. The ones under $50K still qualify for the Oregon rebate until Apr.30th. After that the fund runs out of money.

Edit Jan.2023: There's been some reaction to headlines of "GM raises Bolt price just in time for Fed credit!"
Remain calm. First, the increase is around $600, not the tsunami the lurid headlines would have you believe. Second, GM dealers have been sticking it to their customers by much more than that in most markets already. Good negotiating skills or contact with a car broker might be indicated. and Thirdly, we had posited the price for the EUV as mid-high $29K range and that still holds. Back to our regularly scheduled trainwreck:

Those who have been paying attention over time may have noticed some previous posts about buying an EV for substantially less than you might expect. Mostly about getting a new Nissan Leaf for $15,000 or $18,000 or whatever. This post is about an alternative. Similar price range, similar size and capabilities, MUCH better charging infrastructure and somewhat lower reliability. Granted that's comparing reliability to a vehicle (Leaf) that's been in continuous production for over ten years and has about as close to perfect reliability stats as any car ever.

2023 Chevy Bolt EUV w/$500 (silly) 'Appearance' package

As you might have guessed from the picture, we're talking about the Chevy Bolt EUV. The same one that got (mostly) excluded from discussion before due to not qualifying for the Federal tax credit because GM squandered all their credits on plug-in hybrids. There might, repeat MIGHT be a short window of opportunity wherein it surely does quality for the full tax credit: January - March 2023. We're not saying here that this WILL work, just that it seems probable that it will. A confluence of improbable events, and may the buyer beware ...and do their due diligence beforehand!
     The so called Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has in it some very complicated EV Rebate provisions, where most of the complexity involves rather transparent provisions designed to exclude China from the US auto market, without calling them out by name.  It re-instates the $7500 federal tax credit for EV's and then applies a variety of exclusions as to where the vehicle is assembled and where the parts come from, especially batteries and battery-making materials. The Bolt was originally assembled in the US with about 70% of the dollar-value of parts made by LG in S.Korea. LG still makes pretty much every important component in the car; Motor, Batteries, Electronics, Controllers, Charging, HVAC, Sensors - etc. However, much of that has been moved to production facilities in Michigan so the US-built content percentage is increasing rapidly.
This brings up to the complexity part. How does the EPA, Commerce Dept. Treasury Dept. and IRS all get together to certify where things were built and when? Granted only roughly 25% of the Bolt is made in a US owned factory with union labor, and that was the Biden administration's real goal, but that 25% is the ONLY US union labor going into any EV currently available. Tesla, Nissan, LG, Ford EV (Made in Mexico) are all non-union shops. Yes, it's going to be a regulatory mess, made more complicated by the 'oops' exclusion of our traditional trading partners like Korea, Japan and Germany. Here is Electrek's take on what or who qualifies. Almost required reading

Better in White or Silver? The $500 red lines are still silly.

As far as we can tell the Bolt has been more or less approved for the full rebate as of Jan.1st 2023. As much as anybody has been approved.  However some of the 'rule making' has been pushed out to March. That -might- mean that only partial rebate ($3750) applies after rule-making is completed. The $7500 appears to have pretty good odds but who knows. This ambiguity is even bigger for Hyundai and Kia and VW, whose mix of US built content is less clear and possibly lower. Ford (Mexico, except for important stuff like batteries and motors) also seems to be approved for right now. Even if they all get approved for 2023, the rules change in 2024 and the courts haven't weighed in yet.

The pricing on recent Bolt vehicles has been considerably reduced, at least in theory, to ~$26K for the base Bolt and high ~$29K range for the longer wider taller EUV version. Having seen both of them we can't imagine not getting the EUV version. There was nothing in the 'Premier' (add $4000+) package that we can imaging wanting (leather seats? Ewww) but given the higher profit margins, guess which one the dealers are ordering... Well plus all the other fancy floor mats and undercoating, er, profit making that they add, and don't forget 'additional dealer markup' by whatever name.

So what does this look like if you actually try to get one? Few Chevy dealers want "That EV Shit" sitting on their lots, especially since the likely profits from maintenance (traditionally a high percentage of the profit from car sales) is near zero for most EVs, so the dealer part of the equation could be by far the most difficult part.
Imagine, in your fondest dreams, that you manage to nail down a 2023 Bolt EUV for $29K or a bit above. Fed. credit $7500, State credit (here at least, YMMV) $2500. Yay! New car for under $20K!
Yes, that's ONE THIRD of a Tesla Model Y -after- rebates.

Just make sure you do your homework before contacting the dealer. And as in the past, we recommend going through your Credit Union or Costco discount portal (if applicable) and doing as much of the negotiations online and through email as possible. Get it in writing. Print it all out and take it with you so you have something to beat the dealer's poor hungry salesperson over the head with when they (or more likely their manager) try to change the deal. A high probability in our experience.
That said the last three cars we've gotten have been through the 'Internet Sales Manager' at the dealer who 'won' the selection process (two out of three of those have been in a different state than we live in) and we walked out the door at pretty much exactly the price pre-negotiated. The one case where they tried bait-and-switch we walked out, after loudly letting everyone in the dealer looking at cars know what slimeballs they were. Have a plan B. Granted this takes time, but in our case that time has paid off at a rate of around $300/hr. ...not too bad...
_____________

You'll note that there's little mention of the other EV players here. The Hyundai Ioniq5 and Kia EV6 are really nice cars, the VW ID4 is OK too, the Tesla Models 3 and Y are exceptional. They all have pricing that puts them at a realistic $40K and up (yes, yes: $38,995 + + ... whatever) Even assuming they qualify for all the rebates they still end up costing 50% more than the players we're talking about here. $30K+ is not a cheap EV regardless of how nice they are. It's a different market segment and if that's the segment you live in, well, you're probably not reading this to begin with ;-)
We also don't talk about the Ford Mustang EV. Similar $40K+ price and an 18 month lead-time to get one.

Q&A:

"You've been a Nissan shill for years, why are you now recommending Chevy?"
Nissans have been fine, especially for folks in our income bracket, where basically there wasn't anything else available. You'll note we bought a Mitsubishi iMiev first. Too bad they, like all of the other (non-Nissan) Japanese manufacturers have basically opted out of the EV market. We don't, historically, support jingoistic lying opportunists like GM, but they (via LG of Korea) now have a reasonable product at a reasonable price. Dealing with the Chevy/GM organization may still present challenges.

"I thought the Chevys were all being recalled for burning down people's houses?"
Well, not all of them, though I still wouldn't park anything with an NMC or NCA battery chemistry (see pervious posts) under my bedroom. Since it's mostly an LG content car and they plus GM seem to be doing a good job of 'making it right' that does not appear to be a big concern. Note that even at it's worst the Bolt (and or Tesla) fires have still been much less common than gas cars burning down.  Turns out gasoline is still highly flammable. Doesn't make for lurid media coverage though.
That said, even without the battery issues Bolts have had no better than 'average' Chevy quality, which isn't saying much. You should plan on one or two dealer visits for one thing or another. Probably nothing major nor unusual for the average car. We hear Mustang EV's are doing no better. Contrast this with the ZERO dealer visits we've had across three Nissan Leafs to date! (One visit for an optional software update)

"So the Bolt is better than the Leaf?"
Depends on what's important to you. The original Bolt seats were quite uncomfortable for some people, but that has improved. The charging port on the Bolt is considerably more available out 'in the wild' and it has longer (base product) range so it's arguably much better for longer trips. Some people hate GM. Some people hate Japanese cars or prefer 'American Made.'  Although how they square this with the 90%+ American made Nissan Leaf and the ~40% American made Bolt and ignore the Korean part is hard to imagine. 
The interior volume of the EUV is larger than the ($2000 cheaper) 'regular' Bolt. However even the bigger one is only just barely a match for the Leaf and maybe just slightly smaller cargo volume.
Having just been through a 2500 mile road trip in the Leaf (see immediately previous post) we can say that it's unlikely we'll buy another Leaf. Their failure to update the charging connector from CHAdeMO (Nisssan's 'standard') to CCS should be regarded as highly suspect going forward. If you're only buying for local travel this shouldn't matter and the Leaf remains an excellent and highly reliable low cost choice.
One thing that's not better is the charging speed. The Bolt has the CCS connector, of which you can find many more while out tripping. But it doesn't seem to make good use of the available charge rates, topping out at around 50KW, pretty much like a Leaf and so takes twice or three times as long to charge up at a public charger than some of it's competitors. Granted those other cars cost nearly twice as much.

Availability: We found literally hundreds of base model 2023 Chevrolet Bole EUV LT on CARS.COM for under $29K. No doubt some are bait-n-switch (lots of wiggle room in the wording) but the nearest one to us was 445 miles away. We've gone 200+ miles to pick up a car before, but that seems kinda long. Everyone closer has added a couple thousand additional markup or only carries the Premium version(s) for $4K-$7K more. They're looking out for their bottom line (translation: Screw You) so be prepared for some negotiations, or travel.
To be fair, there's only a few Nissan Leafs under $30K within 100 miles of us and those are the ones with 150 miles of driving range as opposed to the EUV's 200-230 (real world). As they say, YMMV.

One additional low income wrinkle:
Nissan (NMAC) has been very good about passing on the full tax credit for people who otherwise (low income) would not qualify for any tax credits ... like us.  We've posted about this before. Apparently GMAC has gotten better about this than they were back when we posted about that, but check Really Carefully before signing anything. There are snakes in the grass.

2500 mi. for free? Nope.

For those of you following along with the 'for free' trip reports: 900 mi.for free, and the somewhat related 50K mi. for free we have this latest missive regarding a little trip to SandyEggo. After careful planning and consideration (OK, 20 min. on PlugShare.com) Eugene to San Diego and back for free looked do-able.
          Just to get this out up front: EV 'Public Charging' vendors used during this trip and
          their relative success rates in %% and number of (charge attempts.)

Bars are success rate in percent.

So, the whole thing was somewhat spoiled by the less than stellar competence at charging vendor EVGO.
More on that later.

Making the trip for free-ish in a Nissan Leaf ePlus seemed feasible. Granted, the Nissan still sports the ancient and creaky CHAdeMO fast charging connector, which, while it was amazing in 2011 is now the rarest, slowest and most likely to be broken/blocked of the available fast charging types. Instead of the current CCS standard.  Translation: Don't buy a Leaf for distance travel. OTOH: Adds to the adventure! ...Well that and it's the dead of winter wherein EV's get crappy range and passes can be impassable.
We did mention adventure, right?
As core components in the plan, we had a new "First 30 days for free at EVCS" account set up by our traveling companion (I had already used my free 30 days in the last post of this type) which would meet around 50-60% of our charging requirements. The second major component was all the new free Caltrans charging stations that have been put onto rest-stops in California, which should handle most of the remaining 40-50%. Way to go CA!
In this instance they have made good use of the money dumped on them due to VW getting caught with it's hand in the cookie jar (see 'dieselgate'), which partially makes up for their poor performance during the rollout of the West Coast Electric Highway ten years ago.
Any remaining little charging should fit into the $200+ left in the 'free charging' account we got with EVGO when purchasing the car*

Executive summary: For persons with minimal attention span.
(No executives were executed during the execution of this exemplan ;-)
           2500 miles, 19 charge stops, total billing $91 or about 3.6 cents/mile. ~700KWh total.
                                                                 (Compare with Gas at $0.12-0.20/mile)

Day one, Start at 100% charge.   
First stop Grants Pass 120 mi Down to 26%   EVCS free 45kw, 1.2 hrs ~50 KW onboard. Lunch stop.
Cold and wet and headwinds and heaters do not make for great range numbers.

2nd stop Yreka Carl's Junior: 50 Mi (Siskiyou passes) Down to 50%
EVGO clusterfuck. EVGO is supposedly a completely cross-account billing partner with ChargePoint. Except NOT!
   Failure #1: EVGO RFID Card. We checked this with EVGO support before leaving. Yep it's the right one!
So of course it doesn't work. Chargepoint later helpfully points out that it's not a ChargePoint card. Thanks for that, I must have been blind. It does work on actual EVGO stations as you'll see later.
   Failure #2: the EVGO app won't complete registration with an existing account because the phone# provided is 'already in use' despite that exact phone number showing up correctly in their web based account management screen. ...only fails with the app. Yeah, that app, the one you need to use to get the charger going. Extensive attempts at phone and email support, reinstall app. clear out cache/data, reinstall again. No joy, but lots of frustration. The people I'm dealing with are really nice, they just can't fix it. They spent a couple calls, several emails and did finally get this fixed so the app would actually load, about TEN DAYS after we started. Even then we had no luck getting it to actually work. I think 'abject failure' was mentioned earlier.
   Failure #3: The phone support person suggests using their web portal, since all that information is correct.  It's almost impossible to operate on the phone screen due to a number of bad design decisions. Small very light green text on a bright white background? For use outside? Really? And then once you get it deciphered the advertising they have added on top MUST have it's screen realestate, covering up important parts of the form.
So of course it doesn't work. "Failed to Initialize"   More than once. Nobody knows why.
We're too far from the next viable charger so;
   Finally we drag out the ChargePoint app and it't starts the charger right up and bills up $13.75 for the charge. Yay!  ...except we have money already on account at EVGO to the tune of $236. ...that apparently we can't use.      45kw peak, 0.75 hrs ~28 KW onboard

    3rd Stop: EVGO Orland exit 900 Newville Rd.  155 miles and about 9% left, gotta charge!
So, it's EVGO. "The appearance of actual charging!" ...ya know, without any actual charging.
    Failure #4 & #5 More than half the chargers here are non-functional to begin-with. The two forlorn examples remaining wake right up, screens respond, the RFID card works the account authenticates, the charger initializes and starts charge ... and complete failure. "Error Start Signal" (from the car) so of course it's the car's fault. Previous reports from this location so indicate (according to Plugshare posts).  Thus we don't even bother calling, after all we still have eleven miles of range left and the next charger is only 7 miles down the road.
What could go wrong?
    Nothing went wrong, technically this is the 4th stop, but we're counting it as #3.2  and despite being in the northbound rest stop (when we're traveling south) the Free CalTrans charger there works like a champ. Well,  after we help move the guy who has thrown-up all over the inside of his vehicle and parked at the only EV stall, the farthest one along. He was really nice, except for the smell.
    So, CalTrans: 162 miles actually (remember it's downhill from the passes). from 9% to 60% in less than an hour. Pretty good for free. We're doing this CalTrans thing again! Free is nice and it works despite having the same exact connector assembly, screen and software as the EVGO stuff that just failed spectacularly, granted it's the previous software version that hasn't been 'improved' to make CCS (non Nissan LEAF) connections faster.

So we get back on the freeway and arrive at the night's stop at Fairfield Inn in Sacramento. This place was chosen in part because they have charging from EVCS, therefore free to us, plus the rooms are nice (except the noisy heatpump) and the price is reasonable.
The battery had a hard day and takes two hours to go from 4% to 95%. The EVCS chargers are not fast, even with a battery that's not over-warmed-up. Still what do we care, overnight stop.

Next day:

With near 100% full and warmer temps. we looked at maybe trying to make it all the way to Caltrans at Kettleman City. Could -almost- do it but 212 is a lot of highway miles to be assuming about.
Fortunately there was a good short half way solution.
Westleys Rest Stop, 113 miles, CalTrans Free EV charging. We took it from 50% to 68% in about 20 min. The interesting part (to us) is that it didn't show up on the PlugShare or Caltanns maps nor was there a sign. We just stopped for the restroom and there it was. The original plan was to hit the northbound rest stop there since is IS on the map. Note that a number of the CalTrans charging network are not on the map, and some that are, are NOT  reporting their in-use/functional status.
      Failure #6: NOT EVGO!  Yay?  Kettleman City CalTrans Maint. Depot
CalTrans EV chargers here, two units both with the same problem. The touchscreens wouldn't register 'touches' and since you have to push some virtual buttons to get the charge to start...
To add insult to injury the phone number prominently displayed for help plays a nice "This number is not yet in service" jingle for you. ...this was supposed to be a free charging stop so it was scheduled for a bigger charge. Oops.   [Edit: Comments left on Plugshare later indicate that the responses might just be slow. Apparently if you wait about two min. after plugging in, the indicator, for one of the two chargers, -might- turn green and allow you to hit the Start button. We were just impatient?]

We went down the street to the Electrify America EV Charging stations to rub elbows with the well heeled EV folks. Several $80K+ vehicles there. We bought just enough to ensure passage to the Tejon Pass Rest Stop CalTrans EV station about 110 miles south. $18.06 for roughly 42Kw while we walked to a restaurant. 

Tejon Pass EV Chargers, Caltrans, Free
Two out of the four were working which was good because only one was in use. The car really needed it after crawling 4200 feet elevation up the Grapevine. 15% to 80% in 45 min.
...which was plenty since LA is all down hill from there.

It's fun to have the very responsive acceleration of the EV during the cut-and-thrust of near rush-hour LA traffic. Still took almost three hours to make it to Anaheim.
Oddly enough the nearest EV charging to the Disney complex is an EVCS 4-stall at a medical center. Since we had to run across LA to the Burbank airport twice in rush-hour traffic (actually six times total for the trip)  Two of the chargers there worked great. Plugshare says one is intermittent and one non-functional (about par-for-the-course) so we didn't try those. We charged there something like five-six times. Worked great although the location seems somewhat sketchy. Walking distance to a store and a couple eateries. Our first time ever at El Pollo Loco. Woo!

Rolling over 1000 miles and 20 Hrs at the same time.

In theory, a full charge in Anaheim should be enough to make it 95 mi. to San Diego and back, right? Well, with a little local fussing about things looked a little tight so we stopped on the way back at the San Clemente city hall to give EVGO yet another chance to fail, which they did! Fail that is. RFID: Fail. EVGO App: Fail. Chargepoint App: Success! ...but we're $18 poorer.

This was enough to make it through LA and out to the Tejon Pass free CalTrans location. Still worked great although one of the four chargers was down. We had a 5 min. wait.  It was about 1:25 to go from 9% to 85%. We brought lunch with us just for this.

Little stop at the Same set of CalTrans rest-stops/chargers as we had going south. Free is good. and that took us all the way to Sacramento and the same Fairfield Inn/EVCS chargers. Both Marriott properties here have EVCS chargers and the all (8) seemed to be working. I wish that wasn't amazing.

Off we go in the morning and we pretty much used the same chargers going northward. Free at the rest stop, then another rest-stop and then over the pass (with lots of snow and ice!) and ChargePoint at Grants Pass. Should have gotten more than 80% charge level there since it was a downpour, blowing and 38.deg. We had a possible issue with getting home given the conditions, and opted to stop at the EVCS station at 7-Feathers Casino. (Note that the charger is actually on the other side of the freeway)
Here we were surprised to find that the 'Free!'  month that EVCS gives you for starting an account only really works for the first 200KWh you use during that month. Because of timing we actually got more like 230 KWh before getting the warning (both eMail -and- text) and getting dumped into  a 'bonus rate' of $0.29/KWh. which is still better than their regular rate of $50/Month -or- $0.49/KWh. ...so they did fine. In fact, EVCS was the star of the trip.

What did we learn on this trip? Pretty much same as we knew before:

Reliable long distance EV travel, ...should be done in a Tesla.

If not Tesla, then it will take somewhat more bother and time. In this case 2-3 hours extra over 12 days, but we just pulled out a book and read to fill the time, so no great loss. The heat and/or AC continue to work while you're charging if you do it right.

EVCS has REALLY upped their game. Taking over the remainders of the WCEH (see above) from Webato/AeroVironment ('AV' major defense contractor) who had really only set up the initial charging network along i5 and the coast in WA and OR (and bits of CA) to get a bunch of federal contract dollars, and EVCS have turned it into something that mostly works. AV had left an 'EV Desert' from Ashland to nearly Sacamento, making it almost impossible to make it down into CA without a 300 mi.range EV. EVCS and CalTrans have filled that gap at last. Eight years later. Yay-ish.

One could argue that this level of planning should not be necessary, and for Tesla owners it is not. The "Have Not's" have, as usual, a more difficult time of it, and trying to do it for free just adds to the complexity. We would probably have made it on zero dollars had EVGO's advertised cross-billing thing with ChargePoint actually worked (or if Anything EVGO had worked at all) although we'd still be facing that $18 at ElectrifyAmerica. Darn.
Close, but no cigar

There's a good Youtube about this.

Q&A

"Hey with my gas guzzler I'd have made half as many stops and been quick doing it!"

No you wouldn't. Between your tiny bladder and unwillingness to have your gas gauge go lower than one quarter tank you'd have been off the road almost the same number of times. Given meal breaks (when we were charging) and the somewhat longer stops we had sometimes, I doubt you'd have gained more than an hour or two overall. And, you'd have paid around $400 for that time. Go away.

"Is it REALLY this much bother traveling with an EV?"

No. You just buy a Tesla.

"But Elon is ICKY!"

Elon is not Tesla. It's mostly owned by and run by other folks. You just don't hear about that because,  well, Media.

And remember here we're talking here about our use of just about the worst long distance travel EV. Even then it's still very do-able. Just about any CCS charging port equipped car would have an easier time of it. Nissan won't convert the Leaf to CCS because it would cost money (and they're assholes, er, corporate personages. Same thing.)

"Hey, the numbers don't add up!"
We did start off with 100% charge, which should I guess show up as 60KWh  "Home $6 (1)" the rest is just rounding errors.

*Nissan had a deal with EVGO a couple years back wherein they provided the first $300 of charging on your new EVGO account for 'free' and given that it's over 100 miles to the nearest EVGO charging station, that hasn't seen much use except during trips to PDX where we've managed to run up a bill of a bit over sixty dollars during a four year period. We have, by the way, never gotten their app or RFID card to start a charging session at a ChargePoint charging station, something they continue to advertise.  Although to be fair, it might have worked once on the phone with their support folks after standing in the rain while on hold for awhile. Yes, hardly a ringing endorsement.  We have heard from people for whom EVGO has worked just fine. Our experience is simply different.

The Crossing Point: Ain't happening how they say.

Update for 1H '23 results just to show roughly where things are at compared to the various targets shown below. Here we have actual battery EV (BEV) sales as a year - to year comparison

Actual year2year registration data. Puts the crossover at ~Feb.2025 +/- 2 mo.

You'll see this fits the 50% curve below much closer than the 30% curve. This will all make sense when you read the rest of the post, trust us! Annnnd, back to the post:

Those of you who pay attention to the whole EV, Energy, Climate Change 'thing'  (and why else would you be reading this, surely it's not for the quality and brevity of the prose style) are already aware that major politicians expect 50% EV adoption as a 'stretch goal' by 2030. The big auto makers have pretty much gone along whether they want to or not, pushed along doubtless by their largest single market, California, declaring No New ICE (Internal Combustion Engine - 'gas') Cars by 2035.

Addendum early 2023:
Shown here is the 'S Curve' of how technology products advance in a market from a general perspective and then specific numbers released through the end of 2022. As you can see the world wide adoption of EVs is not exactly on the 'tech products' curve, but it's really close. Market share of 'traditional' vehicles is declining apace. Despite their manufacturers' claims of how it's all about supply/parts constraints. If that was really true then the EVs would have been impacted in a similar (or even more extreme) manner.

Idealized market 'takeover' curve

Drivers of the S curve

Actual world wide results through end of 2022. Note 1/3rd of the total by end of 2023
Note also that this most closely follows the 50% graph below.

On with the story: It was great to see a new V-Blog post on youtube by Lars, our favorite EV nut. Here are a couple key graphs from that presentation with a short (comparatively speaking) note on what this is about.

Note: All these numbers are from a world-wide perspective. Not just U.S. centric.

Many of you are aware that the EV market has been growing (remember: World Wide) by approximately 100% per year since late 2019. Granted this includes projections for the remainder of 2022.
     "Really? I hadn't heard that, are you sure?"
You're probably paying attention to U.S.-centric major news outlets that are drinking the 'Big Three' automaker's (and Politicians') kool-aid, er, perspective. They're projecting 50% by 2030.
Now obviously that 100% year-over-year growth rate can't continue indefinitely but there's strong evidence that we're just getting into the sharp upward part of the 'S' Curve that technology/innovation based products tend to observe.

Anyway, Lars projected current numbers and graphed what it would look like to hit that 50%-by-2030 goal. The surprise for most of you is that it only requires a 15% Y-o-Y growth rate. Not 100%/year. Not 50% or even 30%.

Click on it if you want a bigger version of the graph.

Yep, there's NO WAY that this slower growth is going to happen. Even if materials constraints, which we covered throughly in the last blog post, are a much bigger deal than anyone expects*, it will still shoot up faster than this. Note how the curve for EVs has to flatten off after 2022, way unlike how any committed EV manufacturer is projecting as worst-case.

Did some crude edits here to make it more 'S curve'-ish

Even if everyone in the EV industry is seriously delusional and the current growth rate of nearly 100%/year is equally delusional, a growth rate of 30% per year is the minimum we can even imagine happening. Heck the total shown here for 2022 is already low compared to real numbers. Push that blue line up by at least 1-2 million.
So that pushes the cross-over 50/50 point down into 2026. Note how that blue line still has to flatten out a whole bunch right at 2022 to make this graph work. Anybody think that's what's happening? Nope, didn't think so.

Say the recent near 100% growth rate is all B.S. Even extrapolating current, relatively conservative projections results in a 50%/year rate for the next couple years. Here's what that looks like, and what we regard as the most likely scenario. That puts the EV at half the world wide market no later than 2025. 
We're not saying here that the U.S. market will hit 50% by then. Large sections of the U.S. will be keeping their cranium's fully imbedded in their rectum for as long as possible. That will slow adoption. The established automakers and unions have a vested interest in slowing this down to match their ability to change without going bankrupt (which still seems the most likely scenario) and don't underestimate their political clout. Toyota and Honda have been dragging their feet for years now and that will add to the resistance.  As a result the 30% graph is more probable here in the USA. Note that's only 1.5 years different on the crossing point.

Sure, that yellow line at the top could take off, somehow global car demand shoots up a bunch. But even if that demand increase (which seems improbable) is all met by increased ICE production, that only pushes the 50/50 point by a couple months.
Do note the blue line includes plug-in hybrids. That was unavoidable due to how the data/stats are collected. They represent about 10-15% of that 'blue' total. The absolute number of those should continue at about the same raw number, but that will represent a declining percentage of the whole. It should, as 'pure' battery EVs become more viable over time.

What does this mean for us? We're rapidly divesting from any security or index fund that has a noticeable position in the 'Big Three' automakers or their suppliers that are tied to the gas-engine parts of things. Vote with your dollars!
We're probably not going to buy another electric car until the cheaper, longer lasting (but slightly lower range) LFP batteries (no Nickel or Cobalt!) become more readily available. See previous post about batteries.

* All prognostications are null and void in case of world war.

As go the Batteries, so goes the Nation

 Predictions are HARD. Especially about the future of batteries! but here we go anyway:
       Yes there is a glossary of most of the acronyms buried somewhere down the page.
And remember this is not 'just' about cars.
The future of energy production and storage economics are also at stake...

Other Note, a year later: Global production of Lithium is around One Million Tonnes.
Lithium reserves in Nevada alone top 100 Million tonnes.
Lithium refining is now possible without toxic reagents nor significant excess water usage. First production plants using these processes are already being built.
We no longer regard any part of long life (20-25 yr.) LFP production to be North America 'resource constrained' with the possible exception of Graphite. All of the remaining constraints on building out a distributed-power electric future come down to Politics/Fiscal Policy and investment capital.
[FYI: we are lumping all of; NIMBY, Save the U.A.W., Save the Sage Grouse, Save the Indian Burial sites, Save the existing bureaucracy, under 'Politics'  here.]

Note six months later: LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate, ie: No Nickel or Cobalt content) cells, in quantities of 50,000 are already down to around $70/kWh. That makes some of the arguments below even more compelling. Granted that is FOB in China. Tesla and others are near to making the same come true in the US factories. That sounds like a nifty 22% drop. Cool, huh! But don't forget the U.S. allows a $35 per KWh in tax credits, so that drop cuts the after tax cost of LFP cells IN HALF. This is going to get really interesting ... especially when they get the cost down below $50 in 2025 or 2026. What happens when the most expensive part of your car or home energy storage system has a net cost near Zero Dollars?
Boggles the mind.  (subject to politics, obviously)
Way down at the bottom of this post*** you'll find an addendum about how the cost of LFP cells are declining over time. Hint: It's around 20% per year.. Translation: That's around $50/KWh by late-2024-25. Don't forget there's also a $10/KWh credit for cell integration into packs. So even someone like Tesla who are integrating CATL (China) LFP cells into the stationary battery 'Megapack' market see some gain from the credits. These also 'stack' so making your own cells and integrating them can see a total of $45. There have been many announcements from many players surrounding getting into this market. Only one that's actually executing so far. 
Also of note (May'23) LFP batteries have improved to 180Wh/Kg, M3P have hit 210Wh/Kg. NCA are approaching 240Wh/Kg and the first production Sodium (instead of lithium) cells are around 150Wh/Kg and still improving. This stuff is getting better fast.
Be aware that these both M3P and LMFP add Manganese to the chemistry, which tends to reduce the life somewhat, but that may be a viable tradeoff (12 yrs. vs. 20 or whatever) for some folks, especially still with no nickel or cobalt content, assuming the price doesn't jump much.

* Late 2021 Estimates based on then current CATL/BYD/Tesla announcements. See Glossary below**

From current (so to speak) events you might have, rightly IMHO, concluded:
                       "As go the Batteries, so goes the Nation"
based on the plans and statements of a President or two and a legislative body or two. U.S. China, Europe Etc.

This of course sounds like ridiculous hyperbolae. However, it's not unfair to say "Energy Independence -IS- independence." Just ask the several rulers of European countries that decided, 20 years ago, to rely on Russia for gas supply.
     China has figured this out, and the U.S seems to have it kinda sorta in mind, some days of the week.
Since almost all of the oncoming reduced-climate-impact energy sources are electrical in nature, and very few of the uses can directly operate from intermittent sources (Wind, Waves, Solar) some sort of storage medium is required. Pumping water uphill to a reservoir, and heating sand (I kid you not) are potentially viable storage methods in some few situations, but most of it is going to come down to batteries.

Maybe Fusion will be come 'the thing' some day, but it always seems '20 years off.' Both Hydro and Nuclear are difficult to add, build and/or scale up. My prediction is that Wind and Solar, combined with Battery Storage (combined with some existing natural gas emergency generating capacity) are going to 'win' in most situations. Both Wind and Solar are now cheaper to implement than other generating processes. Battery based electrical storage facilities are already on line in Australia, California and Europe, replacing gas 'peaker' electrical generation plants for less than half the cost.

"But mining all those minerals for battery production is going to destroy the earth!!"
                             ... as if the alternatives aren't already destroying the earth... ;-)
Most of the nay-sayers have some sort of vested interest in the status-quo. Once you get past all those political, labor, sunk-cost industries and NIMBY environmental/justice concerns, there are some really valid problems with scaling up materials and factory production processes to meet the kind of battery demand that is certainly coming.
However, a lot of this is at least partially based on outdated information and/or predictions. Many of which continue to be promoted because it serves the narrative purposes of the speaker. 
Also keep in mind another point the nay-sayers aren't making note of: all EV production currently in process uses only 10% of current world wide Nickel production, there are alternatives for some of that 'other' 90%, and that Nickel will make up a declining percentage of the total average battery pack going forward (see below.)

Let's all go all over all that:   [Edit] Also;  There's a nice Youtube now.

While Sodium is becoming a significant component of the batteries we need, (there's some industrial-scale production in China, granted it's unproven and about half the energy-density) Lithium is the key and most voluminous element in all the battery types shown above.  Lithium is a very common substance world-wide, and while the process of extracting and processing it does not have NO environmental consequences, the processes and methods for extracting it with relatively little (especially compared with the alternatives) environmental impact already exist. Now granted the costs of doing this responsibly are higher than strip-mining and washing all the waste products downstream with copious quantities of water, but they are VERY do-able with current technologies and at not-extreme cost. For some time to come the 'dirtiest' sources will remain the cheapest and everyone involved needs to keep an eye on that. Still, Lithium cost and availability seem like comparatively less difficult problems to solve.

The next two big concerns are Nickel and Cobalt. Cobalt for its scarcity, high cost, difficult (and dirty) processing/refining and the concerns surrounding justice for the workers in the countries where it's found.
Nickel has issues for many of the same reasons, especially the 'dirty' part, though it is MUCH more common than Cobalt. These would, IMHO, be almost 'show stopper' issues if there weren't good alternatives:
One thing that seems to get lost in all the outdated predictions and outcry and narratives above is that Less Than Half of current Tesla production of both electric vehicle and/or stationary (think power plant) batteries use ANY Cobalt or Nickel.    OK so some nickel is used in car production, but very little and not in the batteries for nearly 55% of current Tesla car production volume.
Now that doesn't mean that GM and Ford and Nissan and Renault/Stellantis (and to some degree VW) are keeping up with this trend, they are, let's face it, much much slower to make changes, but the writing is on the wall and I don't think they're going to be able to ignore this (see below) over the long haul, despite the significant sums they have sunk into NMC based battery production.
EDIT: Just been informed that the GM Ultium chemistry is NMCA (added aluminum, 70% less Cobalt compared with the early Chevy Bolt batteries) so that's at least somewhat better going forward. More on that later. Ford has announced LFP plans, but nothing in production as yet as far as we know.

The remaining components of the batteries are less of a concern. Phosphates are a done deal, mostly from fertilizer manufacturing processes. Iron, Steel, Copper and maybe some Aluminum, Zink and  Magnesium are already available in sufficient and relatively inexpensive quantities. The last big component is Graphite, which while largely sourced from China today, can be processed elsewhere with existing technologies. More of a short-term concern.

** Glossary.    Now that it's scrolled up off the page, let's go over the table/graphic included above. 
                              ...   Yes, we remain cruel AND unusual...  ;-)
      Unless noted they ALL contain Lithium salts, Copper, Steel and Graphite.
      Which are all, at least relatively, available and low-ish cost.

The first high volume high capacity lithium batteries were of the NMC type (third column) and were used from 2010 onward in the Nissan Leaf and the Mitsubishi iMiev. I believe a variant of this is in the LG produced cells in the Chevy Bolt and that it forms the basis for the cells used by most GM, Ford, Stellantis and VW production. They're all looking at alternatives, but are right now (2022-23) wedded to high volumes of Nickel and Cobalt. (see GM/Ford edit above) This also forms the basis of most Cellphone and battery-based consumer electronics devices, although that (by mass) will pale in comparison with EV and Stationary Power uses.

The NCA Cell is almost exclusively in the high performance or long range Tesla and some GM  vehicles.  It has Aluminum as an added component and requires less nickel and cobalt. Slightly higher energy density and slightly better cycle life seem to be the other advantages with a somewhat higher risk of thermal runaway (burning up) as a trade off. Obviously they have, a million vehicles later, got that mostly under control. While this was in almost 100% of Tesla production in early 2019, it represents apparently less than 50% now. Tesla moves fast.

LFP and it's variants are arguably the up and coming new champion. It's components  [Lithium, Iron(Fe), Phosphate] are considerably cheaper than the competition. The production processes are not significantly worse and it may prove cheaper to actually manufacture once that all gets shaken-out. Refining, transportation and local availability are less of an issue. It's much much less likely to catch on fire so not only does safety improve, but the weight and complexity of impact/fire suppression engineering is reduced. As an additional bonus, the better chemical stability results in a much longer life. Both in the number of cycles it can survive -and- the number of years it will live.
Yes, There's more!
The LFP cell LIKES to be charged up to 100% and discharged (almost) completely. Discharging below 2.5V/cell under load tends to destroy it, but they all have similar limitations. The NMC and NCA cells hate to be charged above 90%. Impacts cell life.
The big trade off with LFP cells has been reduced energy density, both by weight and volume. So it took about a 20% bigger battery to get the same range. In theory. However the packaging efficiencies and willingness to support a wider range of charge-states (the 90% thing) make up for some of this.
As a member of this planet, you might have considerable interest in a battery pack that can last a million miles. As management in a car manufacturer you're probably opposed to anything much longer than the 8 years you're required to support. Impacts sales, Don'tChaKnow. Point is, like everything else, there's competing priorities.

LMFP/M3P are LFP variants, included here because they're already in production (in China) and because they make up much of the difference between LFP and NMC without giving away most of the LFP advantages. These should eventually bring the LFP arm of the business up to parity.
LMFP has some manganese added to the mix to increase energy density. This tends to decrease cell life though, so much work is going into ameliorating that. CATL has their M3P variant with added Zink, Magnesium and/or Aluminum among other things. Other manufacturers are adding silicon to the anodes or using nanoparticle graphite or coatings... Point is there's lots going on in this space without even talking about sodium batteries or solid state batteries. Those have a real chance to impact actual product production and volume delivery next decade. LFP variants will impact deliveries this year.
LFP cells can be tweaked to have lower internal cell resistance than some NMC/NCA chemistries. Since this is directly proportional to the amount of heating that occurs during charge/discharge, this can end up being a significant advantage in packaging density and the complexity/costs of cooling solutions.

Results: Looked at from a geo-political perspective, China currently holds many of the cards in this game. They have been doing a good job of predicting what the requirements for this will be, and then 'command economy' style, making it happen. They have up to 80% of the refining capacity for some of the materials used in battery production right now, although they may not have completely seen the shift to LFP coming (they are the largest LFP manufacturing region right now though). Graphite is still a key despite the LFP shift.
They do not seem (right now) to be using this as much of a lever, but they are making it really easy for Tesla and VW and GM and others to move much of their car production there, about 90+% for GM and a bit under 50% for the others. This is why the recently enacted incentives in the U.S. are such a big deal. The legislation carefully excludes Chinese made cars and raw materials and refined materials from any of the incentives contained there-in. Everybody and their brother has since announced materials, mining and manufacturing plans in the U.S. and some of that is already in motion.
It seems unlikely that China will be able to resist turning the screws on this entirely. The example of Russia's success with energy monopoly gamesmanship won't be lost on them. We'll see if 'on-shoring' these processes can happen fast enough to keep that from being a big issue. The size of oncoming investments in that area would argue in favor, the extreme slowness due to permitting processes and NIMBY and lawyers would argue against. If course the more agile players (mostly read 'Tesla') are already shifting most production out of California and into Texas, TN, GA, Nevada and Ontario and weren't using China for most of the vehicles and stationary battery production they sell in the U.S. to begin with, having seen the writing on that wall early on.

Other stuff:

All that noise about how "EVs use more materials than ICE" has been debunked throughly.

Tesla and BYD (the second largest EV Manufacturer world wide) are both working on very high reliability battery packs (LFP anyone?) that they can bond together to become the base 'frame' of the vehicle. Tesla also has large single aluminum castings that bond on the front and the back of that pack which everything else (motor, drivetrain, suspension) connect to, leaving those three parts to replace about half the parts used in 'normal' vehicles. Talk about your killer manufacturing advantages.

LFP should completely take over the stationary/power-plant market within 2-3 years. U.S. and China will reach 80% LFP during 2023. The lower cost, lower maintenance (100% charging range) and three to four times the usable life are hard to compete with. Who cares if it's slightly larger and heavier. They're taking over the 'house size' battery market too. Sodium batteries may eventually take over this niche, but we're not nearly there yet.
Virtual power plants of connected cooperating houses with solar and a big house battery are becoming a big thing in a number of markets. As a result I'm not planning to invest in companies that put up or operate large gas power plants or transmission lines unless politics kills the alternatives.
The early stages of this are already in production using LFP cells from CATL of China and should fill out the latter stages of the 1.2 GigaWatt plant in Monterrey California (already partially on line).
Each of the shipping-container sized 'MegaPack' batteries now has about 4 megawatt-hours (4MWh) of storage capacity and an inverter that can supply 2MW+ of power, enough to keep 4000 homes going for a 'peak' hour -or- about 400 homes indefinitely. At somewhere a bit less than 2 million dollars each (in quantity), these MegaPacks don't seem cheap, but they've dropped in half (on a per-capacity basis) over the last five years and that curve shows no signs of flattening out (So each 1GWh=$500K now and ~$250K in late 2025). Even 5 years ago the MegaPacks were less than half as expensive to buy and install than a gas powered plant and take one quarter the time to get on-line. So now they're over 4X less expensive.  Add to which they cost a tenth as much to operate!! completely ignoring the cost of gas to fuel those other plants!! 
All of this is now being done with no Nickel, Cobalt or Nuclear materials and relatively little fossil fuels in the materials or production processes. This isn't pie-in-the-sky that fixes all our problems, but it does work, at least mostly, right now and at the very least cuts many of those problems in half - or better.

If you look up "Redwood Materials Co." you'll find that Lithium battery recycling is already a 'thing.'
It only makes sense: The recycling process, while technically difficult, yields raw materials for battery production at a much lower cost (and energy/environmental impact) than any alternatives. As batteries and battery production become more efficient over time, the 5% or so losses in the recycling processes is more than made-up-for by those improvements. A single NMC pack from last year yields enough Cobalt and Nickel for two or three NCA packs. We're rapidly approaching the point where EVs are MORE recyclable than Internal Combustion Engine (ICS) cars, not even mentioning all the fossil fuels they didn't burn up.

One other thing that doesn't get much press is that the total cost of charging infrastructure needs to include the cost of putting in and maintaining the space where the car parks during charging, the space to drive into that parking, street cutouts/driveways - etc. The costs surrounding putting this in vary wildly across the country: Land costs, grading, preparation, paving. curbing, lighting, landscaping, permits, taxes, yuck. In some cases you're just adding functionality to existing parking infrastructure. In other cases it's standalone. Including access, you're looking at about 1000 sq.ft. (approx 100 sq.m) and that probably costs somewhere between $10-20K plus maintenance. Like most things it doesn't scale in a completely linear manner. a 12 stall standalone charging setup is barely over twice the cost of a 4 stall installation as far as the 'parking lot' part of it goes in most situations. Since Tesla tends to put in larger (8 and up) sets of charging stalls they have yet another cost advantage, which to be fair, the other players are starting to catch up on. 
Looking at the quotes the major players put out we can infer that they expect the non-parking equipment costs to total somewhere in the vicinity of $250K-400K per high capacity (150KW and up) charging stall. Presumably that includes the grid-tie, trenching, common electrical box and the actual charging station. People who have deconstructed Tesla's financial statements have put out estimates of $50-100K for their costs on the same. Once again it's Tesla in the lead, and the associated costs/benefits writ large. Something that 'just kinda happens' with lots of government 'help' may not be quite as efficient as a process that's designed from the ground up to work efficiently (and well!) as a system.

Notes:

Should this impact any buying decisions you're making now? As usual: It depends.
If you're only keeping a new vehicle for 3-5 years then it should make little difference. In fact the slightly longer range that's quoted to you might sway your buying decisions in favor of NMC/NCA.
If you're intending to keep it for longer, then you'll probably note that you should only plan to charge the NMC/NCA vehicle to 80% on a regular basis to improve the battery life, which brings it to the same 'day to day' range as an LFP pack that started with 20% less range, but which likes to be charged to 100% regularly.
In the U.S. it's actually more constrained than that. The only LFP based vehicles currently available (and even that depends on when and where they were manufactured) are the Tesla Standard Range RWD Model Y, and Model 3.

** Other notes from the chart. The original is over a year old.  Some of the numbers are outdated. First remember this is per entire battery pack, all built up. Some costs on a per cell basis may be lower. Also the cycle life for NCA is probably more like 1400-1500, at least the way Tesla's battery management software enforces how it works. It is now a common expectation for NCA based Teslas to exceed 200,000 miles on the original battery pack. In part because Tesla updates the software 'over the air' when they learn something new.
Increases in range play into this as well. Early Nissan Leafs were lucky to get 60-80K miles out of a pack. Now that number is 150-200+K. Given that the packs now have two to three times as much capacity and that it therefore represents about the same number of full charges this isn't unexpected. Improvements in cell chemistry and battery management electronics also play a part, even for the older NMC based batteries. This also improves the number of years (ie: purely time based) a pack, and therefore the car, can reasonably last. That said, our 2012 iMiev still has 80% of it's original range ten years in, so how conservative the original engineering might have been plays a part (as does luck.)
Given how the major players are now building the pack into the frame, the time-period of the replaceable pack, never a really economically feasible proposition, can be considered to be pretty much 'over.'
The stuff in the second column is interpolations and guesses based on leaks, press releases and innuendo (but I repeat myself) and should be taken no more as gospel than the rest.

*** This is a graph of the (fairly) well known economic principle Wright's Law as applied to LFP cell production. Analysis of the cost reductions of lithium batteries over time have shown a reduction in manufacturing cost around 28% for every cumulative doubling of overall battery cell production. This has proven accurate over the last ten years and looks to continue over at least the next 6-8 years.
NMC/NCA cells are already at relatively high levels of production, as a result it will take 24-28 months for a cumulative doubling pr production. LFP cells are at a considerably lower (earlier in the process) rate of production, which means the doubling will occur in considerably less time, probably around 15-18 months. This implies that not only does LFP have a significant cost advantage now, but that cost advantage is accelerating!